Bulgarian acquisition programmes

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, Bulgaria finds itself poised to revamp its antiquated and legacy forces. Following over two decades of underinvestment in defence, the challenges confronting the Bulgarian armed forces have reached a critical juncture. There is a looming risk that basic capabilities might soon fall beyond domestic fulfilment, casting a spotlight on the pressing necessity for an all-encompassing modernisation strategy.

Navigating through a maze of economic, social, and political constraints, the question emerges: How will Bulgaria manage to dedicate the next decade to rebuilding critical capabilities of its armed forces through procurement of new equipment? This article aims to dissect several key domains where Bulgaria has acquired, is in the process of acquiring, or plans to procure new or second-hand equipment to replenish or enhance capabilities across its land, air, and naval forces. Additionally, it will scrutinise potential areas requiring attention in the forthcoming years as maintaining legacy equipment becomes increasingly difficult.

Challenges to Bulgarian procurement

Bulgarian national security is dependent on continued cooperation with its NATO and EU allies. This includes military cooperation with the US, which already has a permanent presence in Bulgaria, but also expanding defence ties with Greece, Romania, and even Turkey. These benefits of NATO membership understandably require Sofia to contribute at least 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to its own defence. To realise this goal, Sofia has outlined how and where it will be investing into the armed forces in the 2021 development plan for the Bulgarian armed forces.

One of the main issues that necessitates the procurement of new equipment is the large percentage of equipment in all domains that is still reliant on Soviet-era technology. In many cases, the maintenance of such equipment continues to rely on licenses given by Russian companies to local maintenance firms, or even outsourcing maintenance directly to Russian companies altogether. This is despite Russia having been named a strategic threat to Bulgarian national security in recent years.

The 2021 plan also aims to resolve the shortfall and gaps in capabilities in the air, land, and sea domains, identifying 188 minimum requirements which the Bulgarian armed forces do not satisfy. This would require the procurement of numerous systems to restore or provide new capabilities, with an added necessity being that these solutions originate from EU or NATO countries. It was estimated at that time that the total cost of achieving these requirements would necessitate around USD 22 billion in spending over an 11-year period. Due to the cost of achieving these 188 requirements, only 38 such requirements are budgeted to be achieved by 2032.

Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the plan has not seen any revisions to date. It has been argued that this is due to the economic limitations of investing large funds into defence at the expense of other areas – a common concern throughout Europe. However, there is also a more unique political and social backlash against the development of the armed forces when it is Russia that is now openly-stated to be the greatest threat to Bulgaria. This not a conclusion that has gone unchallenged in what is arguably the most Russophilic society in NATO. As such, a revised development plan for the armed forces would undergo a level of scrutiny that goes beyond concern over cost and will face pushbacks from Russophilic political elements who do not wish to see a Bulgarian armed forces rebuilt to potentially enter a conflict against Russia.

The Land Forces

The Bulgarian Land Forces (SV) and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOCOM) are set to receive a substantial capital boost, aimed at rejuvenating and enhancing their capabilities through the procurement of new systems. This section explores the pivotal areas targeted for modernisation, including armoured fighting vehicles, mobile air defence, artillery, and multiple launch rocket (MRL) systems. For reference, the table below lists recent, ongoing, and planned procurements in these areas.

Central to Bulgaria’s modernisation agenda is the overhaul of its legacy main battle tank (MBT) fleet. Preferring modernisation over outright replacement for cost-effectiveness reasons, the focus is on upgrading the T-72 tanks, which remain the backbone of the army’s armoured capability. This upgrade, concentrated on a battalion within the 61st Stryamska Mechanised Infantry Brigade, incorporates subsystems from Elbit Systems. These enhancements significantly boost the T-72’s operational range, situational awareness, and lethality, enabling engagement with targets up to 3,000 m away while moving at speeds up to 25 km/h.

A noteworthy development in September 2023 was the approval of a foreign military sale (FMS) facilitating Bulgaria’s acquisition of various Stryker 8×8 vehicle variants from General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS). This move, aimed at replacing aging BTR-60 8×8 and BMP-1 models among other specialised vehicles, marks a significant shift in Bulgaria’s mechanised infantry capabilities. Although the deal precludes local production opportunities akin to the Croatian or Polish models with the Patria Armoured Modular Vehicle (AMV) 8×8, Bulgaria aims to establish a Stryker maintenance hub. This facility would not only serve Bulgaria but also provide maintenance and spare parts production for European Stryker fleets, mitigating the loss of industrial cooperation opportunities.

The modernisation drive extends to air defence and fire support systems, with plans to adapt the utilise the Stryker and created a Bulgarian ‘M-SHORAD’ variant. This adaptation involves integrating additional subsystems like the RS6 LW30 remote weapon station, Ranger R20SS radars, and TACFLIR 280 HDEP optoelectronic sensors, enhancing Bulgaria’s short-range air defence capabilities beyond the outdated ZIL-131-mounted ZU-23-2 cannons.

With the 9K33 Osa system facing obsolescence and missile stockpile limitations, Bulgaria’s involvement in the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) could facilitate the procurement of a modern replacement, ensuring alignment with broader continental defence frameworks. Something like an IRIS-T SLS comes to mind as a broadly equivalent system.

Artillery modernisation is also critical, given the obsolescence of current platforms like the 122 mm 2S1 Gvozdika. With the retirement of the 2S3 Akatsiya, Bulgaria’s heavy artillery is limited to the towed 152 mm D-20 howitzer, highlighting the need for a modern 155 mm system to maintain its large-calibre artillery capabilities.

Lastly, the replacement of the BM-21 Grad and potentially the OTR-21 Tochka could be done with a single modern multiple launch rocket system capable of launching multiple calibres of rockets, such as the Korean K239 Chunmoo, which is able to launch both smaller 130/239 mm rockets as well as larger 400/600 mm missiles. Such a move could allow Bulgaria to consolidate its rocket artillery capabilities into a smaller number of formations with mixed range capabilities, saving manpower when compared to the current arrangement of fielding rocket artillery formations dedicated to specific range bands.

The Air Force

The Bulgarian Air Force (VVS) has encountered significant challenges in fulfilling even the most basic requirements for safeguarding Bulgaria’s domestic airspace. The VVS’ inventory includes both fixed-wing and rotary aircraft, in addition to overseeing the majority of the armed forces’ air defence systems, such as the S-300P. Unfortunately, the air force’s systems have largely remained unchanged since 1990, with minimal progression away from Soviet-era systems. As these ageing systems become increasingly difficult to maintain and approach the end of their service life, Bulgaria has grown more dependent on NATO air-policing missions to protect its skies. The air force has set modest goals within its development plan: by 2026, it aims to make its tactical transport fleet available for use by NATO partners, and by 2032, it hopes to have a combat fleet free to participate in NATO air-policing missions. A likely development here is that Bulgaria will incorporate neighbouring North Macedonia into its zone of air-policing, relieving the Hellenic Air Force, which currently performs this task.

This sorry situation stems from the belated effort to replace the ageing MiG-29 fleet with modern multirole combat aircraft, ultimately deciding on the new-build F-16 C/D Block 70s in 2019. However, production delays post-COVID pose a significant risk that the VVS will struggle to keep even a small number of MiG-29s operational for domestic air-policing until the F-16s arrive in 2025-2026. Delays in necessary new infrastructure at Graf Ignatievo Air Base, where the F-16 fleet will be stationed, may further postpone their introduction. It is understood that the Ministry of Defence is collaborating with Lockheed Martin and local construction firms to expedite the airbase’s redevelopment in time for the initial deliveries.

The acquisition of F-16s also signals the much-needed overhaul of Bulgaria’s surveillance radar network, which has not advanced beyond locally-upgraded Soviet-origin radar systems, including the P-37, P-14, and P-18 radar sets. In a contract valued at up to USD 220 million, the air force hopes to procure up to half a dozen radar sets. Competitors for the tender include Elta, Indra, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin, and Thales. Thales has long been the favourite as Paris and Sofia have recently pledged to increase defence cooperation. If so, it is likely Bulgaria will opt for the GM400 from the Ground Master range, recently purchased by neighbouring Serbia. This acquisition would enable an interoperable aerial surveillance capability that could also integrate with NATO’s Combined Air Operations Centres in Germany and Spain.

This development could also indicate progress in addressing one of Bulgaria’s looming crises with its ground-based air defence (GBAD) network. The VVS controls most of the country’s air defence systems, including the 2K12E Kvadrat, S-125 Neva-M, S-200VE Vega-E, and S-300PMU systems. Recent years have seen the S-300PMU systems facing readiness issues, and they were notably absent from the annual air defence exercises at Shabla on the Black Sea. Until at least August 2022, negotiations were known to be ongoing with Russia’s Almaz-Antei concerning the refurbishment of several components of the S-300PMU system, particularly the vehicles.

Bulgaria’s limited capacity to maintain both the systems and missiles domestically has resulted in a reliance on support from Russia, with Ukraine being another potential provider. Given the ongoing conflict, neither option is currently viable, a reality acknowledged by the Bulgarian MoD, which is expected to commence procuring new GBAD equipment in the short to medium term to prevent a total collapse in Bulgaria’s GBAD capabilities.

With Bulgaria’s accession to the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), there is optimism for benefiting from joint procurement of air defence systems from a variety of European and international manufacturers. The Diehl Defence IRIS-T family of surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems could offer a compelling solution for supplementing short- and medium-range air defence, while the company’s IRIS-T SLX also provides a valid option for a long-range SAM system, if the country decides to opt for a single European supplier to meet its requirements. Alternatively, Bulgaria may explore options from Israel or the US, contingent on cost and delivery timescales.

The Navy

The Bulgarian Navy (VMS) has witnessed considerable investments yielding tangible results since the nation’s integration into NATO. Historically considered the least prioritised branch, its significance has been on an uptrend, especially in light of escalating conflicts within the Black Sea region. The recent heightened use of naval mines in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has underscored the Navy’s critical role in ensuring the security of international shipping lanes. In collaboration with the Romanian and Turkish navies, the Bulgarian Navy has actively deployed minehunters to clear naval mines from key waterways. Its modest naval aviation fleet, comprising two Eurocopter AS565 Panthers and one AS365 Dauphin helicopter, also plays a pivotal role in search and rescue operations. According to the 2021 development plan, the Navy aims to maintain at least one of its two patrol vessels in a state of constant readiness for international peacekeeping missions, capable of enduring for up to six months at sea.

In contrast to the Army and Air Force, efforts were made in the 2000s to enhance the naval fleet with the acquisition of three Wielingen-class frigates from Belgium and three Tripartite-class minehunters from both Belgium and the Netherlands. These acquisitions were not mere replacements but served to increase the Navy’s overall tonnage. Additionally, the Navy has placed orders for two new-build MMPV 90 corvettes from Lürssen Werft, outfitted with an TOT 76/62 SR 76 mm gun, RBS-15 Mk3 anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), along with eight cells of VL MICA SAMs for air defence, and a Rheinmetall Oerlikon Millennium 35 mm automatic cannon for close-in protection.

The Navy has prioritised funding requests for two main areas: the restoration of the submarine service and the procurement of new mobile anti-ship missile systems. Regarding the former, the Bulgarian Navy had long ago retired its Romeo class submarines. Although attempts to negotiate for second-hand Ula class submarines from Norway appear to have been unsuccessful, Sofia has indicated that procuring a submarine remains a high priority for the Navy.

Officially, Bulgaria maintains two coastal rocket-artillery brigades, equipped with P-15 Termit anti-ship missiles. Their usage in exercises in recent years has been limited, with the last test launches occurring in 2020. Nonetheless, retaining this capability is a stated goal of the Navy. In line with equipping the new MMPV 90 ships with RBS-15 Mk3 ASCMs, Sofia has a choice to negotiate with SAAB AB for the purchase of RBS-15 for usage from mobile launchers on the coast or start a separate procurement process, which will take longer.

Back of the queue?

A pressing concern that looms large over Bulgaria’s ambitious defence procurement plans is the dilemma of being both financially constrained and potentially too delayed to realise these objectives promptly. Amid a widespread drive across Europe for rapid rearmament, many defence manufacturers are contending with substantial order backlogs, which could extend delivery timelines by up to a decade. This situation risks leaving Bulgaria in a precarious position, potentially underprepared in critical areas of defence.

The burgeoning question is whether Bulgaria will be compelled to reassess its “Made in EU or NATO” procurement stipulations and consider sourcing from beyond its traditional allies. In navigating these turbulent waters, Bulgaria finds itself at a crossroads, weighing the imperatives of timely modernisation against the principles of alliance solidarity and regional procurement. This delicate balance underscores the strategic conundrums faced by smaller NATO members striving to bolster their defence capabilities in an increasingly uncertain global security landscape.

As Bulgaria charts its course through these complexities, its decisions will not only shape its military readiness but also reflect broader trends in defence procurement strategies within the alliance. In this era of heightened security challenges, Bulgaria’s journey underscores the intricate dance of maintaining defence readiness, adhering to alliance commitments, and navigating the global arms market.

Chris Mulvihill