Donald Trump’s stunning comeback to be elected the 47th president of the United States – only the second candidate to win non-consecutive presidential terms and the only ever criminal defendant to win a presidential election – could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
Showing some urgency in adjusting to the new reality, the leaders who are presumed to have the most to lose from a second Trump presidential term – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte – were among the first to post their congratulations.
By 08.08 GMT, when at least three swing states were yet to be declared but Trump was already projected to surpass the 270 votes required to win, President Zelenskyy had already taken to X/Twitter to congratulate Trump on his “impressive election victory”.
Trump claimed on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting in Ukraine ‘in one day’. Although he never explained how, Trump’s propensity to claim good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that any Trump peace plan would involve the ceding of invaded Ukrainian territory to Russia: a solution that is anathema to Kyiv.
Zelenskyy’s congratulatory message to Trump on the morning of 6 November 2024 consequently appeared to be an attempt to head this notion off at the pass and reframe Trump’s future attitude toward Ukraine, which the Biden administration has always strongly supported.
“I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-US strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine,” Zelenskyy wrote. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”
Zelenskyy then added in almost certain hope rather than belief, “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”
Even if Ukraine’s European allies continue their military support for the country, any curtailing of US military support for Kyiv under the impending Trump presidency could have devastating consequences for the Ukrainian war effort, given that the US government has thus far borne the lion’s share of supporting Kyiv. In terms of allocations and commitments to Ukraine from 24 January 2022 to 31 August 2024, while European countries’ support reached EUR 118.2 billion, US support alone stood at EUR 84.7 billion, according to figures cited by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
NATO, meanwhile, has much to worry about regarding Trump’s return to the White House, given that he has previously floated the notions of either not militarily supporting NATO’s European nations if they were attacked or leaving the alliance altogether.
Thus, in a similar vein to President Zelenskyy, and around the same time, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was quick to offer his congratulations to Trump, while stating somewhat presumptively that Trump’s leadership “will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong”. Rutte then added, “I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO.”
During his first term as US president Trump was quick to berate NATO’s European allies for not spending enough on defence. He was not the first US president to do so, but was certainly the most forceful in the delivery of that message. In the end, however, it was another president entirely who ultimately induced European nations to get serious about their defence spending: President Putin, when he invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
Another international leader to offer his congratulations to Trump was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is substantially bolstered by a second presidential term. Netanyahu is thus likely to be emboldened to pursue his ‘absolute victory’ over Isreal’s foes, even as Israeli military leaders are signalling that they have effectively achieved all they can do militarily in Gaza and Lebanon. The right wing in Israeli politics will also be galvanised with the return of the US president who recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which could lead to Israeli hardliners setting their sights on Gaza.
That said, in terms of Middle East policy overall, it is difficult to see how Trump can build on his first term’s achievement in overseeing the Abraham Accords – the bilateral agreements on the normalisation of Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, signed on 15 September 2020 – when Netanyahu is still flattening Gaza and Lebanon.
Related to how a second Trump administration will interact with Israel is how future US policy in relation to Iran will play out. During his first term Trump notably ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani: the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps’ Quds Force. This would seem to indicate that Trump will give Iran short shrift in a second term, although whether he allows Netanyahu to go as far as he wants in pursuing Iran remains to be seen.
Regarding China, Trump’s economic policy appears clear: he has threatened the imposition of massive tariffs on all Chinese imports and appears eager to engage in another trade war with Beijing. However, what is less clear is whether Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra will usher in an isolationist US foreign policy right at a time when US military leaders in the region are warning that China’s aggressive stance in the Asia-Pacific must be confronted at all costs.
