Predictive maintenance and life cycle management for armoured vehicles

Europe is rapidly increasing the size of armoured vehicle fleets, but it is long-term readiness – not acquisition – that has become the key challenge. Recurring issues such as shortage of parts, technical-data gaps, and uneven maintenance capacity are also limiting availability across multiple fleets. Solutions, including predictive maintenance and AI-driven life-cycle management are only now addressing these gaps. Next-generation armoured capability depends as much on sustainment standards and data discipline as on mobility and protection.

The development and acquisition of armoured vehicles will be a clear priority in Europe for the years to come. This is evident across multiple European Union (EU) and national initiatives, ranging from direct research and procurement programmes to strategic initiatives enabling the future deployment and operation of such capabilities.

At the forefront of the EU framework are targeted R&D programmes under the European Defence Fund (EDF); this includes the Future Highly Mobile Augmented Armoured Systems (FAMOUS 2), focusing on next-generation modular armoured platforms with advanced mobility and protection. ​The project ArmoURed Infantry Ground Assault (AURIGA) will design, develop and prototype key technology bricks. The Main Battle Tank Technologies (FMBTech) project focuses on innovative technologies within a modular main battle tank (MBT) system architecture, to support existing and future European MBTs.

Alongside R&D, joint procurement initiatives will further strengthen European capabilities, such as the Common Armoured Vehicle System (CAVS) programme, supported by the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Joint Procurement (EDIRPA) initiative and based on the Patria 6×6 platform. Currently comprising seven European nations (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Norway, Sweden,  and the UK) and open for more to join, the programme includes “a jointly developed state-of-the-art new armoured vehicle system” as well as its Life Cycle Management (LCM), which is implemented through dedicated agreements among participating nations and Patria.

Alongside these EU-led initiatives, major investments in armoured vehicle capabilities are underway across Europe at the national level. France and Germany are jointly developing the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) through the MGCS Project Company GmbH (MPC), aimed at replacing the Leopard 2 and the Leclerc MBT families with a multi-platform ground combat system.

Poland is advancing its Borsuk infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) programme through a March 2025 agreement with a consortium led by Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) and Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW), following the 2023 framework establishing the Universal Modular Tracked Platform (UMPG; Uniwersalna Modułowa Platforma Gąsienicowa) as the basis for Borsuk and its family of tracked vehicles.

As part of its ‘Army 35’ modernisation plan, Spain is enhancing its armoured capabilities through modernisation of existing vehicles, such as the Pizarro IFV and the Leopard 2E MBT, and through the acquisition of new platforms via the VCR wheeled combat vehicle (vehículo de combate sobre ruedas) 8×8 Dragón programme. Other countries, including Greece, The Netherlands, and Romania are implementing national armoured vehicle modernisation programmes.

 

Several enabling instruments are expected to ensure the availability and operational readiness of armoured vehicle capabilities in Europe for decades. These include the European Union Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which supports the expansion of defence manufacturing capacity, and multiple EU military mobility initiatives that remove regulatory bottlenecks and strengthen infrastructure for rapid deployment of heavy platforms. Long-term enablers also include strategic policy frameworks such as the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030. At the transatlantic level, NATO initiatives like the Defence Production Action Plan (DPAP) and the NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge are expected to play a strategic role.

While increased defence spending and the current international context place armoured vehicle capabilities high on the agenda, ensuring their operational availability at affordable costs over several decades to come is essential. Learning from lessons of the past and understanding emerging trends is key to achieving this, just as striking the right balance between readiness and total cost of ownership (TCO) represents both a challenge and an opportunity.

Old challenges

A 2025 report by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) to the US House Committee on Armed Services analysed the sustainment challenges affecting the availability and maintenance of selected Army and Marine Corps ground vehicles from fiscal years 2015 to 2024.

Nine sustainment challenges were identified to have affected the ground vehicle fleets. Two of them affected all 18 vehicles analysed:

• A lack of parts and materiel, due for example to issues such as obsolete parts, diminishing manufacturing sources, or long lead-times for production. Aging fleets, like the M113 armoured personnel carrier (APC) and high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicle (HMMWV), experienced significant difficulties in sourcing parts due to manufacturers ceasing production or being unwilling to produce small batches. While the old fleets faced diminished manufacturing sources, newly-fielded vehicles were also reported to face issues due to competition for parts with ongoing production lines. ​
• Outdated or unavailable technical data hindered maintenance and repair efforts. It was reported that depot maintainers often had to send maintenance and repair work to manufacturers due to the proprietary nature of technical data. This concerned, for example, the M1 Abrams MBT, the Bradley IFV, and the Stryker family of wheeled armoured vehicles. To illustrate further, it was indicated that separate manufacturers own the technical data for the Abrams’ engine, and transmission, preventing depot maintainers from performing repairs themselves. Even when technical data is purchased, updating it for new versions of components (for instance, engines or transmissions) can be time-consuming and can lead to delays in maintenance. Handmade drawings still in use for the older vehicles are complicating maintenance and repair efforts. Examples were given for both the M113 and the M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer (SPH).

Several challenges were also identified regarding maintenance work. Lack of regular depot-level maintenance has led to skill degradation among maintainers, as experienced, for example with the Stryker programme. Complex design, like the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle’s (JLTV) advanced digital architecture, also posed challenges for maintainers in the field due to its complexity and high learning curve.

 

A recurring issue was unplanned maintenance, where vehicles arrived at depots in far worse condition than anticipated, which forced additional repairs and parts procurement. In addition, the findings of the GAO report show that insufficient overhauls led to lower mission capable rates across the vehicle fleets, including the M1 Abrams, the M88 armoured recovery vehicle (ARV), or the family of medium tactical vehicles (FMTV). Depot-level overhauls are highlighted as critical not only for the old vehicle fleets but also for newly-fielded systems, like the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) family and the JLTV. These examples point to key challenges that are broadly acknowledged by the life cycle management community and for which there is no simple ‘miracle’ solution.

It is generally acknowledged that operating and support (O&S) costs during the in-service phase can account for 70–80% of total life-cycle costs, and that early design decisions significantly influence these costs as well as long-term operational availability. According to the US Department of Defense (DoD) 2025 Operating and Support Cost Estimating Guide, among the eight system types analysed, the average life-cycle costs for ground vehicles as a system type are of 3% for research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E), 32% for procurement, and 65% for O&S.

The earlier examples also indicate that Integrated Product Support planning must include data rights and technical documentation from the start to ensure long-term supportability. Early acquisition and proper management of technical data during the initial stages of the acquisition process are therefore critical to ensuring long-term sustainment.

The examples also show that long-term and sustainable cost savings are not always achieved by cutting on the most obvious activities, such as scheduled maintenance or depot overhauls. On the contrary, reducing scheduled maintenance can lead to higher downstream costs and lower availability, while skipping depot overhauls often results in declining mission-capable rates, degraded vehicle conditions, increased unplanned maintenance, decline in specialised maintenance skills, and more.

Evolving solutions

Although these challenges are not new, the approaches to address them continue to evolve and demonstrate increasing effectiveness. Two complementary categories of solutions can be distinguished: one is driven by technological advancements, which offer new opportunities while simultaneously introducing additional complexities; the other is grounded in policies, standards, processes, and recommended best practices.

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is a powerful complement to traditional preventive maintenance strategies, and its concepts have been integrated in military systems maintenance strategies for years, across NATO and its member countries. CBM relies on monitoring the actual, real-time, condition of equipment to determine the need for maintenance, performing it only when there is evidence of potential failure or degradation. CBM Plus (CBM+) enhances traditional CBM by integrating advanced technologies and processes to improve reliability, maintenance efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. Leveraging internet of things (IoT) sensors, health monitoring data, AI-driven analytics, and digital twins, CBM+ enables predictive maintenance actions that mitigate potential failures before they occur.

The US DoD mandates CBM+ as a primary sustainment strategy for weapon systems under DoDI 4151.22. Transitioning to CBM+, and thus to predictive maintenance, is progressively implemented, including in armoured vehicle programmes. For example, as part of their modernisation efforts, the US Marine Corps (USMC) announced the adoption of a CBM+ strategy for six key vehicle platforms and critical operational capabilities, including the armoured vehicle JLTV. This strategy involves advanced data collection and analytics to predict and pre-empt equipment failures, and to optimise maintenance schedules.

In 2024, the Government of Canada launched a challenge to develop fleet-wide, automated, proactive Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) for military platforms. The goal is to “support a movement to CBM, and ultimately, predictive maintenance, to optimise limited maintenance resources, and to increase the availability of operational platforms”.

 

At the national level, in September 2025, in the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) signed a GBP 320 million contract with IBM UK to develop the Defence Equipment Engineering Asset Management Systems (DEEAMS), a new AI-driven platform that will modernise and streamline the UK Armed Forces’ equipment management. According to the UK Government press release, the new system will replace 17 fragmented applications and will provide “real-time information to predict maintenance and repairs, stock availability, and engineering planning across major equipment and platforms”. It will serve over 65,000 users across more than 130 major military platforms and assets, and armoured vehicles are expected to be part of this.

Although France does not have a formal CBM+ policy like the US DoD, it actively pursues predictive maintenance and HUMS integration for land platforms, illustrated by initiatives within the SCORPION programme, or by the Tactical Evaluation Vérité (EVTA) trials, and the NumCo digital twin project for the armoured infantry fighting vehicle (VBCI).

While neither the EU nor NATO mandate a unified CBM+ policy, since this remains a trend driven by national implementation, both promote advanced maintenance strategies through research, funding, and standardisation efforts.

Industry is also embracing the predictive maintenance strategies, in the context of government strategies or independently. Only selected examples can be provided here. Information available on the CAVS programme’s Life Cycle Management contract, signed between Patria, Finland, and Latvia, suggests that it is based on the Patria OPTIME service concept, which employs HUMS, maintenance records, and mission profiles to optimise performance.

On its website, Oshkosh Defense has announced that it has applied CBM and CBM+ methodologies across an array of defence platforms including JLTV, the British Army’s wheeled tanker and the US Army ’s FMTVs, Armor Level 1, Protection Level 2 (FMTV A1P2).

At the 2025 AUSA and MSPO exhibitions, the Israeli defence integrator IMCO Group showcased its HUMS, which supports predictive maintenance for military land, sea, and air platforms. In September 2025, the group announced the establishment of a new subsidiary in Romania as part of its strategy to enter European markets and expand the group’s production capacity, and to operate as a “local supplier” for European projects. This strategy and IMCO’s active pursuit of partnerships in Europe may indicate future use of its HUMS in European nations’ armoured vehicle capabilities.

The importance of standards

Predictive maintenance appears to be an emerging trend that is here to stay, helping to increase operational availability and reduce O&S costs for armoured vehicle capabilities. However, this does not come without challenges, the most evident of which include whether systems are new or legacy platforms undergoing modernisation, how data is collected and organised to enable meaningful use of AI capabilities, and ensuring robust cyber defence.

Armoured vehicle systems and the enabling technologies currently in development benefit from a historically unprecedented opportunity: integrating sustainment planning and maintainability from the design phase as well as, from the outset, applying strategies and standards to collect structured data, which will significantly enhance the reliability and trustworthiness of AI capabilities supporting predictive maintenance. Strong cyber-security can also be integrated in the original design.

Much of today’s technological advances and best practices can also be applied to legacy systems, which represents an opportunity especially in the context of modernisation programmes. However, limitations must be acknowledged principally in relation to implementing data-driven maintenance versus the costs that should be incurred to achieve this across an entire system. Since most of the legacy systems were not designed with data-driven capabilities in mind, data collected can be fragmented, and the temptation to rely upon unstructured data lakes may be strong, which can undermine predictive maintenance effectiveness.

Perhaps unexpected for some, but evident for many, process-oriented standards such as the NATO ALP-10, offer timeless solutions to constantly emerging challenges, while considering latest technological evolution. Promoting interoperability, ALP-10 aligns Integrated Life Cycle Support (ILS) activities with all System Life Cycle (SLC) stages, including design, acquisition, operation, and disposal, highlighting how ILS processes and activities are integrated into each stage.

While processes can be timeless, technical standardisation is driven by technology change, and standardisation of digitalisation in defence is the next challenge.

Manuela Tudosia