The Israeli government indicated on 30 September 2024 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing for a potential ground operation into Lebanon to confront the Shia militant group Hezbollah. The offensive would be the latest stage in an Israeli campaign that has seen the IDF confront Israel’s enemies on multiple fronts over the last few weeks.
On 30 September Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the heads of regional councils in northern Israel, where multiple communities have been evacuated in light of Hezbollah rocket attacks, “The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon – it will be a significant factor in changing the security situation and will allow us to complete the important part of the war’s goals: returning the residents to their homes.”
By 30 September IDF special forces units had already initiated raids into Lebanon to target Hezbollah tunnels along the border between the two countries.
Israeli operations against Hezbollah in recent weeks had already escalated when on 17 and 18 September Israel targeted Hezbollah operatives by detonating explosive devices secreted in their pagers and radios. That attack might have been initiated because the Israeli security services had become convinced their clandestine operation was about to be exposed. However, perhaps taking advantage of the consequent disruption in Hezbollah communications, Israel then widened its offensive operations against Hezbollah on 23 September with multiple airstrikes into Lebanon, while Hezbollah responded with multiple rocket attacks into northern Israel.
Then, in a significant blow to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers, it was announced by Israel that on 27 September the Shia militia’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had been killed by an Israeli airstrike on his underground bunker in Beirut.
The Lebanese health ministry had already reported before the end of September that Israel’s airstrikes have killed more than 1,000 people in the country. It is the deadliest episode in Lebanon since Israel fought a 34-day war with Hizbollah there in 2006.
On 29 September Israel then launched a wave of airstrikes against the Houthi militia in Yemen, in particular against the port of Al Hudaydah, in direct response to Houthi missile and bomb-laden unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against Israel. The Houthis, who are also backed by Iran, have conducted aerial missile and UAV attacks against Israeli ever since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Although the vast majority of these have been intercepted by the IDF’s air defences, on 19 July a bomb-laden UAV struck a block of flats in central Tel Aviv, which prompted Israel’s first airstrikes against the Houthis.
On 30 September it was reported that the head of Hamas’ Lebanon branch, Abu el-Amin, was killed along with members of his family in an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon.
In particular after the killing of Nasrallah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has talked about Israel’s current offensive changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come”. However, while the IDF has, indeed, stuck a number of very significant blows to Hezbollah in particular, any change in the balance of power is unlikely to be permanent if achieved by military force alone. It also remains to be seen how Iran, which has always preferred to confront Israel via its regional proxies rather than directly, will react as the IDF continues to deplete those proxies’ capabilities.
