While current plans a focused on providing the Ukrainian Air Force with F-16s, the Swedish government has started to put money behind the potential supply of Gripens to Kyiv.
When Ukraine’s West European allies set about bolstering the Ukrainian Air Force (Povitryani syly Zbroynykh syl Ukrayiny; PS ZSU), to develop the air threat to Russian forces and deny Russia air superiority over the Ukrainian battlefront, the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon was an obvious place to start.
This was because five European F-16 fighter operators – Belgium, Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands and Norway – had either converted over to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or are in the process of doing so, leaving older-model F-16s available for donation to Ukraine in sizeable numbers.
Beyond these plans, however, a number of sources – most expectedly within Saab – also touted Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen C/D as an ideal candidate fighter for the Ukrainians. This idea remained a theoretical possibly while plans proceeded to transfer F-16s to Ukraine and to train Ukrainian aircrew and maintainers on the Falcon, but in September 2024 the Swedish government started to get serious about the prospect of providing Gripen C/Ds to Ukraine.
Credit: Saab
Presenting its 17th military support package for Ukraine on 9 September 2024, the Swedish government stated in a press release, “At the moment, transferring [the] JAS 39 Gripen to Ukraine is not a viable option, as it would interfere with the prioritised introduction of F-16 fighters. However, in parallel the Swedish government is continuing its efforts to establish conditions for a possible future support of JAS 39 Gripen fighters to Ukraine. Support package 17 does so by acquiring materiel parts for the JAS 39 Gripen worth approximately SEK 2.3 billion (EUR 0.2 billion).”
The press release further noted that “Materiel parts are JAS 39C/D parts that are being reused in the construction of new JAS 39E aircraft. By acquiring new materiel parts, a number of JAS 39C/D will be saved from being dismantled and can – if the Swedish government decides so – be considered for a possible future donation to Ukraine.”
While the Swedish government press release clearly opens a path to the potential future supply of JAS 39C/D fighters to Ukraine as the Swedish Air Force (SwAF) transitions to the more modern JAS 39E, the statement was somewhat confusing given how SwAF plans for its Gripen fleet have changed in recent years.
When, in February 2013, the Swedish government decided that the SwAF would acquire 60 Gripen Es, this was originally to be through upgrading Gripen C/Ds. However, it was subsequently decided that at least some of the SwAF’s Gripen C/D fleet would be retained to preserve the combat mass of the SwAF, with a number of Gripen Es being produced as new-build aircraft. Deliveries of the first serial-production Gripen Es began in November 2021, while the SwAF is currently believed to be operating 71 single-seat Gripen Cs and 23 two-seat Gripen Ds of 75 and 25 of these types respectively delivered from 2004.
In December 2021 the Swedish defence procurement agency (FMV) announced that 40 Gripen Es would be fully new-build aircraft, meaning that a similar number of Gripen C/Ds could be retained rather than cannibalised.
Asked to clarify the situation, a spokesperson for the Swedish Ministry of Defence (MoD) told ESD on 7 October 2024, “The original plan was to take some specific parts out of JAS 39C/Ds and to reuse them when building new JAS 39Es. Back in 2013 the decision on Gripen E required 60 Gripen C/Ds to be dismantled to build 60 Gripen Es. No decision has been taken yet on the remaining 40 Gripen C/Ds. However, since the security situation in Europe has been deteriorating, decisions have been taken to manufacture those specific parts, instead of dismantling a number of JAS 39C/Ds for parts to be reused in JAS 39Es. Now, in Package 17, an additional number of specific parts will be manufactured, saving an additional number of JAS 39C/Ds from being dismantled and instead possibly making them available for donation to Ukraine.”
Credit: Saab
Meanwhile, a Saab source told ESD on 3 October 2024, “The Gripen E is a totally new design and all Gripen Es are newly produced aircraft. Since continuous development and low life-cycle cost is in Saab’s DNA, Gripen E has been designed to allow some systems to be re-used between the aircraft models per the customers’ choosing, or you can opt to go to brand new solutions. This is typically only done for systems not vital to the important feature set provided by the new aircraft.
“Sweden had previously planned to use this possibility for a small portion of systems in some aircraft,” the source added, “but per their communication now opted to go forward with the new system approach.”
Beyond the Gripen C/Ds in SwAF service, Saab is also understood to be holding between 18 and 22 ‘white tail’ Gripen C/Ds that were ultimately never sold to a customer, although it remains unknown how many of these have powerplants and could thus be offered to Ukraine.
Asked how many Gripen C/Ds could in theory be transferred to Ukraine, the Swedish MoD spokesman replied, “No decision has been made regarding the donation of JAS 39s. If it becomes relevant, factors such personnel, training conditions, associated equipment will have to be considered. We will not comment on specific numbers of possible JAS 39 donations.”
A capable platform
A single-engined fighter like the F-16, the Gripen C is a lighter aircraft with slightly lower performance overall but can still attain a maximum speed of Mach 2.0 (2,100 km/h) at 15,240 m and features a combat range of 800 km and a maximum payload of 5,300 kg. The Gripen C/D has eight hardpoints for weapons, while single-seat C models also have a 27 mm Mauser cannon. Missiles in the Gripen C/D inventory include the Meteor and AIM-120B AMRAAM beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAMs), IRIS-T and AIM-9L Sidewinder dogfighting missiles, the Taurus KEPD-350 air-launched cruise missile, the AGM-65 Maverick air-to-ground missile and the RBS-15 anti-ship missile, while precision-guided bombs such as the GBU-12 Paveway II and GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb can also be carried.
All of the above weapons, with the exception of the Taurus KEPD-350, are currently in the SwAF inventory and could presumably be supplied alongside any donated Gripens. Ukrainian employment of the ramjet-powered Meteor BVRAAM in particular, which travels at speeds above Mach 4 and has a range in excess of 200 km, could make a significant difference in air-to-air engagements over eastern Ukraine.
Credit: MBDA
The Gripen C/D’s primary sensor is the PS-05/A pulse-Doppler radar, while the aircraft also features an IR-OTIS infra-red search and tracking sensor, Saab’s Countermeasures Dispenser System for self -protection and also an aerial refuelling probe for long-range operations.
Among those who have touted the Gripen as an ideal solution for the Ukrainians, a key aspect has been the ease with which a pilot can learn to fly the aircraft. The SwAF, after all, has opted not to procure two-seat Gripen F conversion trainers as the Brazilian Air Force has done. Instead, SwAF pilots, who will have already had experience of flying Gripen C/Ds, will simply put in the required number of hours on a Gripen E flight simulator before taking to the skies in the real thing.
One source familiar with both Gripen C/Ds and older-model F-16s cited multiple reasons to ESD as to why a Gripen C/D would be easier to train on and operate in combat.
“Early versions of the F-16 – in fact, the majority of variants prior to Block 70 – do not incorporate autothrottle or the means to set and maintain a constant airspeed without pilot monitoring,” the source explained. They noted, “Gripen, just as other fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, incorporates both autothrottle and specific excess power (SEP) indications, which significantly reduce the workload of the pilot by providing automatic control of airspeed or a computer-assisted indication of the desired throttle setting to maintain. This is particularly useful when conducting operations such as close air support (CAS) and battlefield air interdiction, which frequently require the pilot to look into the cockpit at the electro-optical targeting system display or other sensors to locate, track and target accordingly.”
“Similarly,” the source added, “the Gripen auto-pilot system reduces workload by allowing the pilot to select attitude hold (maintaining the aircraft at the desired level and angle of bank/heading) and then being able to increase or decrease angle of bank (and therefore turn rate) via inputs to the rudder pedals. In doing so the pilot can fly a very effective CAS ‘wheel’ around a target with only the use of his feet (and without fear of loss of control or stalling), freeing up their hands to programme weapon data or take notes from airborne or ground controllers.”
Thirdly, the source noted that the Gripen “features a full ‘care-free’ flight control system (FCS) that limits pilot control inputs to maximise turn and roll performance without exceeding the structural limits of the aircraft. The more basic F-16 FCS modes require manual pilot monitoring of aircraft limits across the flight envelope (particularly when carrying external stores and weapons). The F-16, unlike the Gripen, can be departed from controlled flight – particularly when engaging in SAM [surface-to-air missile] defence manoeuvres or aerial combat (dogfighting). The requirement to observe aircraft limits places a huge additional workload on the pilots.”
Credit: Peter Felstead
Beyond these issues, the Gripen’s ability to conduct dispersed operations – what NATO terms Agile Combat Employment (ACE) – could prove very valuable to a Ukrainian Air Force whose assets are being hunted by the Russians. Gripens need just 700 m of road to land and take off during ACE operations. Conversely, the source noted to ESD that the US Air Force works on a minimum runway length of 2,438 m (8,000 ft) for routine operations.
“The requirement for such runway lengths decreases flexibility (availability of runways in Europe),” the source explained. “The absence of reinforced front gear and undercarriage, combined with no integrated high-lift devices, poor handling qualities on approach, angle-of-attack limitations on approach (due to the risk of tail-strike) and poor braking capability on landing further limit the short field capability of the F-16 (all variants).”
Ukraine’s F-16s
For all of that, however, for the Ukrainians the F-16 is the only viable current option and they are clearly very pleased to have them, with the first F-16s to be donated to Ukraine since the Russian invasion entering the Ukrainian Air Force inventory in early August 2024. In a video posted on the X/Twitter account of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 4 August 2024, Zelenskyy could be seen addressing a ceremony for Ukrainian Air Force pilots and maintainers at an unknown location with two F-16s behind him sporting Ukrainian insignia. The video footage also showed two additional F-16s conducting a flypast of the ceremony.
“We are now in a new phase of development for the air force of the armed forces of Ukraine,” said Zelenskyy in his address. “We have done a lot to transition the Ukrainian Air Force to a new aviation standard: Western combat aviation. … We have held hundreds of meetings and negotiations to strengthen the capabilities of our aviation, air defence, and defence forces. We often heard the word ‘impossible’ in response, but we made possible what was our ambition, our defence need, and now it is a reality in our sky: F-16s in Ukraine. We ensured this.”
Credit: Volodymyr Zelenskyy X account
The first batch of six F-16s are understood to have arrived in Ukraine in late July 2024 from Denmark, with one lost in action around 28 August, according to a statement from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while the first Dutch-donated aircraft had followed by early October. Denmark and the Netherlands had both committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine on 20 August 2023. Denmark said it would provide 19 aircraft, while Zelenskyy claimed the Netherlands had committed to providing 42.
Belgium, meanwhile, signed a security agreement with Kyiv on 28 May 2024 that confirmed it would transfer 30 F-16s to Ukraine. Norway, which decided in 2023 to donate a number of F-16s to Ukraine under the framework of the Air Force Capability Coalition (AFCC) for Ukraine led by Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States, stated on 10 July 2024 that it would donate six aircraft, with deliveries to start in 2024. The Royal Norwegian Air Force phased out its F-16s in 2021 following its adoption of the F-35 Lightning II, but sold 32 F-16s to Romania.
The F-16s that Ukraine is receiving are F-16AM/BM variants: single-seat F-16As and twin-seat F-16Bs that have undergone a mid-life upgrade that, among other features, introduced an improved radar – the APG-66(V)2A – that offers the ability to track and engage more targets simultaneously and at greater ranges.
Could France beat Sweden to it?
Even if the Swedish government were to fully sanction the donation of Gripen C/Ds to Ukraine, their arrival would certainly be at least a year away. Asked by ESD if there were any moves in process to train Ukrainian aircrew and maintainers on the Gripen C/D should a Gripen donation proceed, the Swedish MoD spokesperson replied, “Planning regarding training and education of Ukrainian pilots and personnel are taking place within the Air Force Capability Coalition.”
Credit: USAF/Tech Sgt Joseph McKee
“Co-ordination with AFCC is crucial for determining when the introduction of an additional combat aircraft system could take place,” the spokesperson added. They noted, “Sweden remains in close contact with the coalition, also in regard to the training of Ukrainian pilots on the ASC 890 [the Saab 340-based airborne early warning and control aircraft, of which Sweden has pledged two to Ukraine]. If necessary, training of Ukrainian personnel will be prioritised within the Swedish Air Force if a donation becomes relevant.”
Meanwhile, on 8 October 2024 French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu posted on X/Twitter that the Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter is “bound for Ukraine”, with deliveries scheduled for the first quarter of 2025. “In Cazaux, in Gironde, they will be equipped with new equipment: [for] air-ground combat and anti-electronic warfare defence,” he stated, adding, “The training of Ukrainian pilots and mechanics continues.”
This confirmed a statement made by French President on 6 June 2024 that Mirage 2000-5s, which are being replaced in the French Air Force by Dassault Rafales, would be sent to Ukraine. The quantity of Mirage 2000s to be sent was not mentioned by either Lecornu or Macron.
Peter Felstead