The Warrior Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) and its variants first entered British Army service in 1987. Some 38 years later, it has reached its out-of-service date, but at this point there is no defined successor system. So, who are the key contenders?
That there needs to be a successor to Warrior is obvious, but defining what a successor should be or do, is not so clear. The search for clarity is made more difficult by the fact that the conflict in Ukraine has seen the emergence of new threats. However, the long-standing demand for infantry supporting armoured units to have both protected mobility and effective firepower remains unchanged.
Yet it could have been a totally different story, since the original idea was that a substantial part of the Warrior fleet would be upgraded and that its eventual out-of-service date would be 2040. To properly understand possible future British Army IFV plans, it is prudent to first understand the Warrior’s development.
Where it began
The 1970s saw Britain embark on a programme that would lead to an indigenous IFV design; initially the aim was to develop a successor to the FV432 vehicle family that had entered service in 1962, with the new replacement vehicle due to arrive in the mid-1980s. Known as the Mechanised Infantry Combat Vehicle (MICV) programme, a number of different potential variants in different weight classes were evaluated. The project definition phase for what was now being called the MICV for the 1980s (MICV-80) took place between 1972 and 1976. This was followed by the issuance of a General Staff Requirement and in 1977 it came down to a choice between a British design on the one hand and the US AIFV design (based on the M113) on the other, with the decision made to opt for the British design. GKN Sankey, the company that had built the FV432, was awarded a development contract for what was now called the Mechanised Combat Vehicle 80 (MCV-80) and this was followed by a production contract in 1984 at which point the MCV-80 became the Warrior. Production started in 1986, and deliveries commenced in 1987.
The Warrior variants acquired by the British Army included the FV510 Infantry Section Vehicle, of which 492 vehicles were acquired (of which three which were replacements for lost vehicles, giving a peak fleet of 489). This variant featured a Vickers Defence Systems turret equipped with a RARDEN 30 mm automatic cannon and a 7.62 × 51 mm L94A1 chain gun. Alongside this, the Army acquired a total of 84 FV511 command vehicles, 105 FV512 Combat Repair Vehicles, 39 FV513 Mechanised Recovery Vehicles, 52 FV514 Mechanised Artillery Observation Vehicles, and 19 FV515 Battery Command Vehicles for AS90 Battery commanders. Later, to support operations in Afghanistan, a number of FV515 vehicles were converted to ambulances.
Warrior production ceased in 1997, by which point the British Army had received 791 Warriors in multiple variants, plus the 254 vehicles for Kuwait, making a total production run of 1,045 vehicles. Had the Cold War continued, it is highly likely that the British Army would have acquired more Warriors, although it is difficult to see the original objective of replacing the FV432 ever being achieved. Indeed, the FV432 is set to outlast the Warrior in British Army service!
A failed upgrade
In 2001, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) embarked on an effort to provide capability enhancements to the Warrior IFV. Central to this, was a lethality enhancement effort to provide a new armament that would offer higher performance than the Rarden 30 mm cannon. This was the start of a process that would lead to a more comprehensive upgrade programme under the rubric of the Warrior Capability Sustainment Programme (WCSP).
Under the overall WCSP heading were four separate upgrade programmes, which were: Warrior Fightability Lethality Improvement Programme (WFLIP); Warrior Modular Protection System (WMPS); Warrior Enhanced Electronic Architecture (WEEA); and the Armoured Battlefield Support Vehicle (ABSV). Regarding the ABSV, early on in the WCSP programme, the idea was to upgrade 449 IFVs and convert the remaining IFVs and support variants into the ABSV configuration in roles such as mortar carrier and ambulance, amongst others.
Turning to the WFLIP element of WCSP, the lethality enhancement seemed to be focusing on the CTA International 40 mm Case Telescoped Armament System (40CTAS). Despite the interest in 40CTAS, it was decided to hold a competition for a new gun system, evaluating both European and US solutions. The 40CTAS was eventually declared as the preferred system, but it was to take until 2015 for CTA International to receive a production order for the 40CTAS, amounting to some 515 guns for the WCSP and for the Scout SV (later Ajax) programme.
Problems with WCSP continued and matters were not helped by the fact that another British armoured vehicle programme, Ajax, was also extremely troubled. Eventually, the MoD decided to give up on WCSP, and in March 2021, the programme was cancelled, having cost the MoD a little over GBP 594 million.
However, the Warrior story is not quite over yet, as in June 2023 a contract announcement was made for Rear Safety Camera Systems (RSCS) for the Warrior, described as a ‘safety critical modification.’ Some 359 Warriors are due to receive the RSCS, representing a contract value up to GBP 20 million, with the contract start date given as 1 September 2023 and an end date of 1 September 2025. This has, however, pushed Warrior’s retirement to the right, from its originally-scheduled date of 2025. According to James Cartlidge MP, the former Minister for Defence Procurement, answering a question from Labour MP Clive Lewis on 19 December 2023, Warrior was scheduled to be retired from service “by the end of 2030.”
The Warrior fleet is still large, as confirmed by James Cartlidge in a Parliamentary answer on 10 May 2024, that the total warrior fleet comprised 632 vehicles in all variants, of which 80 were due for near-term disposal, with a decision on the fate of nine more vehicles to be taken at a later date. With regards to the disposal of Warriors, there have been suggestions that a significant number could be transferred to Ukraine as military assistance.
Beyond Warrior
While Warrior’s new retirement date of 2030 has bought some breathing room, as of yet there is no programme for a successor. A significant IFV programme will inevitably be a costly proposition and despite all the talk of new money for defence in Britain and the suggestions that efficiencies will make existing funds go further, the reality is that money is short at the MoD. Also, despite much talk of procurement reform, it would be somewhat optimistic to expect a British Army procurement programme to rapidly define a new IFV and purchase it as a successor to Warrior within the latter’s remaining service life.
Assuming that the firm intention to proceed with an IFV programme manifests itself and assuming that sufficient funding is available to support a viable IFV programme, then the search for a solution can begin. One positive regarding an IFV purchase is that there are plenty of platform solutions out there, some of which are readily available.
Both vehicles were put through an extensive and challenging trials process, with both vehicles also evaluated in terms of local production and sustainment of the future IFV fleet. It should also be noted that the new IFV was due to replace the M113AS3/AS4 in Australian Army service, which was to reach end of life in 2025 – an interesting parallel with the Warrior in the UK. Other factors, principally defence budgetary pressure came into play, which led to the LAND 400 Phase 3 requirement initially reduced to 300 IFVs, and then following the May 2022 election of a new government and subsequent Defence Strategic Review (DSR), reduced to 129 vehicles. Eventually in December 2023, Australia signed a contract with HDA for 129 Redback IFVs, with the combined value of the acquisition and initial support contracts some EUR 2.81 billion. Deliveries are due to commence in 2027, and be completed in 2028.
By winning the LAND 400 Phase 3, Hanwha and the Redback would be likely contenders for a Warrior replacement programme. Additionally, although Hanwha’s K9A2 self-propelled howitzer (SPH) bid lost out to KNDS’ RCH 155 for the British Army’s Mobile Fires Platform (MFP) artillery requirement, Hanwha’s bid envisioned cooperation with local manufacturers under ‘Team Thunder’, providing a potential basis to meet British industrial involvement requirements in the event of an IFV bid.
Although it lost out in Australia, the KF41 Lynx has made progress elsewhere. Hungary is acquiring 209 KF41s in seven variants, with the first 46 vehicles being built in Germany (the first vehicle was handed over in 2022). All of the remaining KF41 will be built at a new facility at Zalaegerszeg in Hungary, with the first locally-manufactured KF41 handed over to the Hungarian Armed Forces in July 2024. Ukraine has also selected the KF41, and local manufacture has commenced with the first ten vehicles due to be handed over to the Ukrainian Ground Forces by the end of 2024. The other major development for Rheinmetall and the KF41 is that it has been downselected as one of the final two contenders for the US Army XM30 OMFV programme to replace the Bradley IFV.
The other vehicle downselected for the XM30 OMFV is the GDLS Griffin, which is actually based on the ASCOD 2 platform (now typically marketed as simply ‘ASCOD’) on which Ajax is based, and could also be manufactured on the Ajax line at GDLS-UK. Although it has been a troubled programme in the past, the British Army’ s Ajax now appears to be on track, which is positive news for both the user and the industry. The Ajax turret and its 40CTAS cannon have now been integrated, meaning the turret/weapon integration issues experienced on the Warrior WCSP need not be repeated.
As such, GDLS-UK could be in a position to meet either a near-term British IFV requirement with an Ajax derivative, or a medium-term requirement based their OMFV bid. It is also worth noting that in November 2024, the General Dynamics European Land Systems (GDELS) ASCOD 2 platform was selected by Latvia as its future IFV.
Another proven IFV option that could be of interest for the future British requirement is the BAE Systems CV90 Mk4. The appeal of this platform is low risk, as the CV90 has been successfully exported and utilised by numerous international customers. In the Scout SV competition, it was understood that the CV90’s chances were reduced by insufficient British workshare on the vehicle offered. While there may be scope for BAE Systems to adjust their workshare scope for a UK bid, there is also the possibility that, having been heavily criticised for its handling of numerous recent procurement programmes, the MoD may be willing to accept more flexibility with regard to workshare if doing so leads to rapid delivery.
Bearing in mind that the Boxer is generally seen as one of the few successful British Army procurement programmes of recent years and that the level of British industrial content is seen as satisfactory, it might be viewed as a disappointment that a wheeled vehicle might not be suitable for the IFV requirement. Boxer proponents need not worry, as KNDS came up with a solution back in 2022 when they unveiled the Tracked Boxer at Eurosatory. The tracked version has a higher weight rating of up to 45 tonnes, and so should provide greater flexibility with turret options than the wheeled version. As such, a tracked Boxer could be a contender for any future British IFV programme.
Closing thoughts
That the British Army should have a replacement for the Warrior IFV and variants is easily justified. Whether a replacement programme for the Warrior will actually materialise remains, unfortunately, unclear at this point in time. Had WCSP actually gone according to plan, then the Warrior fleet could have run until 2040 and any decision on a successor platform could have been postponed. As it stands, WCSP was cancelled and the end of the Warrior is due to come in 2030, with no replacement programme firmly in place. Should a realistic IFV programme for the British Army be agreed upon, numerous candidates could meet its IFV requirements. In the end, it comes down to procurement priorities and funding. Given that both are somewhat in flux pending the release of the Strategic Defence Review in approximately spring of 2025, the UK’s road to a future IFV remains uncertain at this point in time.
David Saw
Author: David Saw has been a defence journalist for over 40 years, writing for and editing magazines in Asia, Europe and America. His interests include defence industrial developments in Asia, current conflicts and the role of artillery and infantry on the modern battlefield.
