Poland’s armed forces modernisation: SITREP

Poland continues to modernise its armed forces, but the process is increasingly challenged by structural issues, particularly financial constraints.

In 2024, total defence spending reached EUR 32.4 billion, marking a 23% increase compared to 2023. According to local outlet Dziennik Zbrojny, while the government had planned to allocate 4.2% of GDP to defence in 2024, actual spending amounted to 3.78% of GDP. In 2023, the figure stood at 3.26%. The same outlet, widely regarded as the most authoritative Polish source on the financial aspects of defence and modernisation, has repeatedly warned of mounting budgetary pressures.

For instance, in early April 2025, Dziennik Zbrojny reported that multi-year contracts signed in previous years have consumed the majority of the Ministry of National Defence’s (MoND’s) modernisation budget for the 2025–2028 period. As a result, the remaining available funds may be insufficient to meet other critical procurement and ammunition needs that have not yet been contracted. The planned expansion of the Polish Armed Forces further complicates the situation, as it drives up operational costs while reducing the funds available for investments in equipment and ammunition

Another key concern is Poland’s placement under the European Commission’s excessive deficit procedure, which further limits the government’s ability to finance defence programmes. In short, Poland will have limited financial capacity for signing new modernisation contracts through 2028, as it is already committed to more than 470 contracts worth over EUR 131.9 billion, including EUR 87 billion that needs to be paid between 2025–2035. Future modernisation needs are projected to require additional agreements totalling more than EUR 153 billion.

Tanks

One of the latest developments is the announcement of a second executive contract for South Korean K2 tanks. The first contract, signed in 2022, covered the delivery of 180 tanks, scheduled to be delivered by the end of 2025. The framework agreement between Poland and South Korea provides for a total of 1,000 tanks. However, the conclusion of the second contract, including details on technology transfer and the relocation of production to Polish facilities, has faced significant delays and challenges.

In early July 2025, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz revealed the details of the new contract (worth about EUR 5.7 billion) covering K2 and K2PL tanks, as well as support vehicles based on the K2 platform, including armoured recovery vehicles (ARVs), armoured engineering vehicles (AEVs), and armoured vehicle launched bridges (AVLBs). It was disclosed that the second contract includes 180 tanks, more than 60 of which will be in the Polish K2PL variant. A portion of the tanks will be produced in Poland, specifically at the Bumar-Łabędy plant in Gliwice. The agreement also includes technology transfer, logistical and technical support. The first 30 tanks under this new contract are expected to be delivered in 2026 and are intended for potential export. Furthermore, Polish media have reported interest from Slovakia.

 

By the end of 2026, the Polish Armed Forces will operate a total of 779 modern tanks, including 116 M1A1FEP, 250 M1A2SEPv3, 180 K2, and 233 Leopard 2 tanks (the Leopard 2A4 variants are currently being upgraded by Poland’s defence industry to the more advanced 2PL and 2PLM1 configurations, which are better adapted to national requirements and industrial capabilities). The M1A1FEP tanks were ordered in January 2023 for EUR 1.2 billion, with deliveries carried out from June 2023 to June 2024. As a result, Poland will field six ABRAMS tank battalions, each consisting of 58 tanks, along with an additional 18 vehicles assigned for training at the Land Forces Training Center (CSWL). Deliveries of the M1A2SEPv3 tanks commenced in January 2025, and are scheduled to run through to the end of 2026.

Other land vehicles

A long-awaited modernisation priority for the Polish Land Forces is the introduction of the domestically designed and manufactured Borsuk tracked infantry fighting vehicle (IFV). The Borsuk is intended to replace the obsolete BMP-1s currently in service. So far, the MoND has ordered 111 Borsuks at a cost of EUR 1.5 billion, with deliveries scheduled to run from 2025 through 2029. A framework agreement for the delivery of up to 1,000 vehicles and 400 specialised support vehicles was signed in February 2023 by representatives of the Armament Agency and the consortium of Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW) and the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ). The Borsuk is based on a universal modular tracked platform and is equipped with the ZSSW-30 remote turret.

Poland is also planning to acquire a heavier IFV (CBWP – Ciężki Bojowy Wóz Piechoty), which will feature greater armour than Borsuk, but will lack the latter’s amphibious capabilities. Final decisions on the programme have not yet been made. Several foreign designs are under consideration, including the South Korean AS21 Redback, the Turkish Tulpar, and the German KF41 Lynx. At the same time, Huta Stalowa Wola, the manufacturer of the Borsuk, has been working on a domestic solution. This new platform will be developed using experience and components from the Borsuk programme as well as other projects conducted by HSW. Poland is considering acquiring up to 700 CBWP vehicles.

In June 2025, the Armament Agency placed an order for another batch of Rosomak-WEM medical evacuation vehicles based on the Rosomak 8×8 wheeled platform. By 2028, the Polish Armed Forces will receive 12 additional Rosomak-WEM vehicles along with a training package. The total value of the contract is approximately EUR 61.5 million. The first 37 WEM vehicles were delivered to the Polish Army between 2008 and 2011, followed by a second batch of 29 vehicles ordered in 2022, with deliveries starting in December 2024 and continuing until 2026. Thanks to the latest contract, the total number of Rosomak-WEMs in service will increase to 78.

 

Poland is also steadily acquiring Homar-K multiple rocket launcher systems (MRLS). Initially, 212 units of this Polish variant of the K239 Chunmoo were ordered, but this number was increased to 290 following the signing of a second executive agreement in April 2025. These launchers are mounted on domestically-produced Jelcz 882.57 8×8 truck platform. The deal also includes CGR-080 239 mm rockets with a range of 80 km, as well as CTM-290 tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) with a range of 290 km. In April 2025, a joint venture agreement was concluded to establish a dedicated ammunition production company. The first rockets produced domestically under this venture are expected to be available in 2029. According to estimates by Defence24, the Polish Land Forces currently operate at least 81 Homar-K systems.

A persistently unresolved issue is the enhancement of Poland’s artillery ammunition production capacity. Although more than three years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Poland has yet to significantly increase its capabilities. In early April 2025, the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) was awarded four contracts to co-finance the production of 120 mm and 155 mm ammunition, valued at EUR 565 million. The companies receiving funding to expand their technological base include Dezamet, Mesko, Nitro-Chem, and ZPS Gamrat. According to government plans, a production capacity of 150,000 rounds of large-calibre ammunition is expected to be achieved by the end of 2027. Currently, PGZ is fulfilling a contract signed in December 2023 for the delivery of approximately 280,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, with deliveries scheduled through 2029.

Aviation

Currently, the most attention is being devoted to plans involving FA-50 Golden Eagle light fighter aircraft from South Korea. A deal worth EUR 2.5 billion was signed with KAI in September 2022. Poland ordered 48 light combat jets, including 12 units in the interim FA-50GF (Gap Filler) version and 36 units in the FA-50PL version, which is tailored to Polish requirements. All ordered FA-50GF aircraft were delivered to Poland in 2023, while the FA-50PLs are scheduled for delivery from November 2025 to September 2028 under the agreement. Ongoing controversies surround the programme’s cost, the aircraft’s ability to integrate more advanced weapon systems, and the currently limited combat capabilities of the FA-50.

Much debate has also been sparked by the MoND’s decision in June 2025 to lease AIM-9P Sidewinder air-to-air missiles (AAMs) from South Korea. Poland has also placed an order for the more modern AIM-9L variant. This is an interim solution, as Poland ultimately plans to arm the FA-50s with the latest AIM-9X variant. Officials argue that leasing the older missiles will enable the FA-50s to be deployed more quickly for airspace defence missions. At the same time, it has been confirmed that a mid-life upgrade (MLU) programme for Poland’s in-service F-16s is also planned.

A key ongoing modernisation programme is the introduction of the F-35 into service. Poland signed a contract in January 2020 to purchase 32 F-35A Lightning II fighters as part of the Harpia programme. The contract is valued at USD 4.6 billion and includes a comprehensive logistics and training package. Once fully operational, Poland will have three F-16 squadrons, two F-35 squadrons, and three FA-50 squadrons. However, it is widely believed that Poland’s needs are greater, with a target of ten combat squadrons (approximately 160 aircraft). In this vein, the MoND has acknowledged its interest in acquiring air superiority fighters, but final decisions will depend on available financial resources.

 

In terms of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in 2023 Poland began leasing MQ-9A Reaper drones, but more recently has commenced efforts to procure newer models. In December 2024, the Armament Agency signed a contract for the delivery of the first batch (up to three) of MQ-9B Skyguardian) for reconnaissance missions. These drones will be equipped with optronic sensors, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and signals intelligence (SIGINT) capabilities. The Polish MQ-9Bs are also planned to be armed with missiles and guided bombs. Further purchases of MQ-9B Skyguardian UAVs are planned under the Zefir programme, and the acquisition of a naval variant for the Polish Navy is currently under consideration.

Helicopters

There has been considerable controversy surrounding Poland’s helicopter procurements. Until recently, most public attention focused on the acquisition of AH-64E Guardian helicopters to replace the aging Mi-24D/W fleet. In 2024, Poland signed an intergovernmental agreement to purchase as many as 96 AH-64Es. At the same time, it leased eight used AH-64Ds for EUR 255 million as a temporary solution for the 1st Army Aviation Brigade. The AH-64E contract, which covers deliveries from 2028 into 2032, and includes armaments and training, is valued at approximately EUR 8.5 billion. As part of the programme, Poland plans to acquire two types of anti-tank missiles: up to 1,844 AGM-114R2 Hellfire missiles and up to 460 more advanced AGM-179A JAGM (joint air-to-ground missiles). Despite the high costs, the acquisition is going ahead.

Currently, public debate is dominated by the cancellation of a planned purchase of 32 helicopters for the Land Forces. Officials have explained the decision as a result of shifting priorities. The original plan envisioned the acquisition of 32 S-70i Black Hawk helicopters for Poland’s airmobile units. These helicopters are assembled at the PZL Mielec plant, owned by Lockheed Martin. At present, the Polish Special Forces operate eight S-70i Black Hawks.

Meanwhile, deliveries are underway for 32 AW149 helicopters, which are being produced at the Leonardo-owned PZL Świdnik facility. The contract for these helicopters, signed in 2022, is worth over EUR 1.9 billion. According to official plans, Poland currently prioritises several categories of helicopters: combat-trainer helicopters, multi-role maritime helicopters for the Miecznik class frigates (primarily for anti-submarine warfare), heavy transport helicopters for army aviation, SAR helicopters, as well as platforms for special operations. These include a multi-role special operations helicopter, a light special operations helicopter, and a multi-role support helicopter intended for use by the Land Forces.

Navy

Poland is currently building three multirole frigates under the Miecznik programme, with these based on Babcock’s Arrowhead 140 design. All three vessels are to be delivered to the Polish Navy by PGZ Stocznia Wojenna (War Shipyard) by the end of 2031. The first unit, named ORP Wicher, is scheduled to be launched in mid-2026 and is expected to enter service in 2029. The ships built under the Miecznik programme will form the core of the surface combat forces of Poland’s naval branch.

In late March 2025, PGZ Stocznia Wojenna handed over the ORP Mamry minehunter (Project 207M) to the Polish Navy. The ship, launched in 1981, had undergone a comprehensive overhaul. The company had previously refurbished two other minehunters – ORP Niecko and ORP Nakło (both Project 207P), under a contract signed in 2022. Meanwhile, another Polish shipyard, Remontowa Shipbuilding, launched the first of two ships being built under the programme codenamed ‘Delfin’, which will provide Poland with SIGINT and ELINT capabilities. The equipment for this programme is supplied by Saab, and the first ship is expected to be ready by 2027. The first ship of the class, ORP Jerzy Różycki, was named after a Polish mathematician and cryptologist who, along with other Polish experts, broke the codes used by early (three-rotor) German Enigma machines as early as 1933, and later contributed to the work of British codebreakers at Bletchley Park in cracking the later five-rotor and eight-rotor versions of Enigma machines. The entire Delfin contract is worth EUR 620 million.

 

In December 2024, Poland ordered a new rescue vessel, scheduled to be launched in 2027. However, the future of Poland’s submarine fleet remains unresolved. After retiring all four Kobben class submarines in recent years, Poland currently operates only one submarine, ORP Orzeł (Kilo class). The submarine modernisation project, dubbed ‘Orka’, has been ongoing unsuccessfully for several years though the current government promises that a contract will be signed soon. Offers have been submitted by the French Naval Group, Spanish Navantia, Italian Fincantieri, German ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, Swedish Saab Kockums, and Korean Hyundai Heavy Industries. One key factor in the decision will be the ability of the selected foreign partner to provide Poland with so-called bridging capabilities, with submarines that Poland could use for sailor training until the delivery of the final vessels.

Dr Robert Czulda

Author: Dr Robert Czulda specialises in International Affairs and Polish Defence matters and is based in Poland at the University of Łodz.