Confirmed and suspected Russian airspace incursions ramp up tensions across Europe

Both confirmed and suspected Russian violations of NATO airspace across Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltics in September 2025 have ratcheted up European tensions with Moscow to dangerous levels.

The latest incident came on the night of 22 September, when the Danish authorities reported two to three large drones flying in the area around Copenhagen Airport, forcing operations there to be suspended for around four hours. Operations at Oslo’s airport were also suspended for three hours after suspected drone sightings there.

Calling the incursion “the most severe attack on Danish infrastructure so far”, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen noted that Russian involvement could not be ruled out. This statement was made in light of previous events. On 19 September Estonia became the third NATO nation in 10 days to suffer an airspace violation at the hands of Russian forces when three Russian MiG-31 ‘Foxhound’ fighters entered Estonian airspace “without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes” over the Gulf of Finland, according to the Estonian government.

The Estonian airspace incursion followed Polish airspace being violated 19 times on the night of 9/10 September by Russian drones during a heavy air raid on Ukraine, with responding Polish and other NATO air assets reportedly shooting down up to four of the drones, after which Romanian airspace was violated by a Russian Geran drone on 13 September.

Both the Polish and Estonian incursions prompted those countries’ governments to invoke NATO’s Article 4, under which alliance members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion within the North Atlantic Council.

Regarding the Danish drone incursion, Jens Jespersen, a Copenhagen police official, said in a statement to the press that all the indications were that the incursion had been carried out by a “capable actor … that had the capacity, the will and the tools to make their presence known”.

Jespersen added that the drones could have been launched from a ship in the nearby Oresund strait, with Danish media identifying the Russian cargo ship Astrol 1 and the tanker Pushpa, which has been sanctioned by the US and EU for carrying Russian oil, as potential culprits for such an operation.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated during a press conference on 22 September, “We will shoot down flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is absolutely no discussion about it.”

He cautioned, however, that Poland would need to think twice before deciding on measures that could “trigger a very acute phase of conflict”.

Also on 22 September Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson stated in an interview with Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet, “No country has the right to violate Swedish airspace. Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary, and will defend its airspace.”

Jonson stated that under Swedish IKFN regulations, which relate to responses to violations of Swedish territory, “the government has given the armed forces instructions on how to handle offending aircraft. This includes the right to resort to armed force if necessary, with or without prior warning.”

The hardened European stance to the recent spate of airspace violations is also supported by US President Donald Trump, who appears in recent days to have finally come round to supporting Ukraine in its fight against the invading Russian forces. Having made a presentation to the UN General Assembly in New York on 23 September, Trump was then asked in a press conference whether NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that enter their airspace, to which the US president replied, “Yes, I do.”

On 12 September, in response to the initial Russian drone incursion over Poland, NATO launched its ‘Eastern Sentry’ mission: a military activity aimed at bolstering NATO’s posture to the east. This involves “a range of Allied assets” and features “both traditional capabilities and novel technologies, including elements designed to address challenges associated with drones”, according a report on the NATO website.