F-35 in Europe: a takeover?

A significant number of European nations are acquiring the F-35 fifth-generation combat aircraft. This will enhance interoperability within NATO armed forces, but raises the question of excessive reliance on a single weapon system.

The F-35 Lightning II combat aircraft was conceived at the outset as a multinational project and with an eye to exports beyond the project partners. The development programme began in 1995 under the designation Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), with ‘joint’ referring to an aircraft which could meet the operational needs of all flying service branches of the participating nations. Eight of the development project’s nine partner nations, including the United States and Canada, are NATO members (this also includes Türkiye, which was excluded from the project in 2019 over Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defence system).

The United States and the United Kingdom are the two founding members of the programme, with the US functioning as the lead nation, having the greatest financial and industrial participation in the programme, as well as enjoying full access to critical information and exercising the highest level of influence over the course of development. The UK is classified as the only Tier 1 partner, (with the UK originally committed to carrying 10% of the cost), receiving a share of industrial participation and more access to critical information than lower-tier partners. The remaining partners joined subsequently, and are classified as Tier 2 (participating to a lesser degree in technology transfer, subcontractor participation, and supply chain) or Tier 3 (with the lowest degree of funding, participation and influence).

The F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office (JPO) located in Arlington, Virginia is the United States government’s representative for the project which simultaneously functions as the implementing agency for the F-35 Production, Sustainment and Follow-on Development Memorandum of Understanding (PSFD MOU) between participating countries. All partners are procuring the aircraft for their armed forces. Non-partner nations can solicit acquisition on a government-to-government basis through the US Defense Department’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme. To date, the JPO has signed FMS Letters of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) with ten such countries. These include six European states, of which only Switzerland is not a NATO member. Additional European nations are considering the F-35. Pilot and maintenance personnel training are conducted centrally at Luke AFB, Arizona, using aircraft owned by the respective nations. As described by the US Air Force (USAF), the F-35 training programme is “designed to integrate pilots, foreign and domestic, into a common set of tactics and advanced technologies enabling them to execute the mission as one unit.”

Current European procurement plans and potential new procurements

Development partners

• United Kingdom – The UK stands by its original goal of 138 F-35s to be jointly operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF) and Royal Navy (RN). The initial tranche of 48 aircraft is expected to achieve Full Operational Capability (FOC) by the end of 2025; as of March 2024, 33 aircraft had been delivered. Procurement of a second tranche of 27 aircraft is slated to begin after 2025, bringing the fleet to 74 aircraft by 2033. The UK exclusively operates the short-takeoff vertical landing (STOVL) variant F-35B (however it can execute vertical take-off if carrying a light payload, making it technically S/VTOL). The RAF declared IOC in 2018, with the RN following with maritime IOC in 2020. The first deployment in a carrier strike group was conducted in 2021. In March 2024, British F-35Bs operating from HMS Prince of Wales participated in Exercise Steadfast Defender, demonstrating interoperability with NATO allies.
• Denmark – The Royal Danish Air Force (RDAF) programme of record covers 27 F-35A aircraft. Since 2021, seven aircraft have been sent to Luke AFB as pilot training platforms. The first in-country delivery to Denmark, a Tier 3 partner, was accomplished in 2023.
• Italy – As a Tier 2 member, Italy contributed circa USD 1 billion to F-35 development. Rome initially established a requirement for 131 aircraft, but reduced the figure over budgetary concerns, though its Air Force leadership has since advocated for a return to the original figure. The current programme of record covers 60 F-35A (Air Force) and 30 F-35B (Air Force and Navy) to be delivered through 2030. Italy declared IOC for the F-35A variant in 2018.
• The Netherlands – The second and only other Tier 2 development partner, The Netherlands, provided USD 800 million to the joint development program. Its first operational aircraft arrived in The Netherlands in 2019, with IOC declared in 2021. A 2022 decision to place an additional order brings the total programme of record to 52 F-35As for the Royal Netherlands Air Force.
• Norway – A Tier 3 development partner, declared IOC of the F-35A in 2019. Following NATO air policing missions over Iceland in 2020 and 2021, the aircraft assumed the Norwegian and NATO Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) function from the F-16 in January 2022. The Royal Norwegian Air Force (RoNAF) fleet of 52 F-35As is scheduled to be complete and fully operational by 2025.

FMS partners

• Belgium – In 2018, Belgium announced it would purchase the F-35A to replace the F-16 fleet. The contract for the first tranche was signed in 2020. Deliveries of all 34 aircraft to form two squadrons are to be completed by 2030.
• Czech Republic – In January 2024, the Czech Republic and the US signed the agreement for sale of 24 F-35A aircraft to replace the JAS 39 Gripen. First deliveries are slated for 2031, with final units presumably due by 2037.
• Finland – In February 2022, Finland signed a letter of acceptance for the F-35A as the replacement for the Air Force’s F/A-18 aircraft. The 64 aircraft will be delivered 2025-2030.
• Germany – In March 2022, Berlin announced the decision to acquire the F-35A to replace the Tornado IDS in the NATO nuclear strike role. All 35 aircraft will be built in the United States. The first units are to be delivered in 2026, and achieve IOC in 2028. They must be ready to assume the nuclear strike role by 2030.
• Poland – In January 2020, Poland signed their F-35A acquisition contract. Production under the contract began in 2023. Initial planning called for the first aircraft to be delivered to Luke AFB as training platforms in 2024, with deliveries in Poland beginning in 2026. The last of the 32 units are to be delivered in 2030.
• Switzerland – In September 2022, the Swiss government signed the contract for 36 F-35A to replace the nations’ F/A-18 and F-5 aircraft. According to the Swiss broadcaster SRF, the military found that “both financially and technically, the [F-35] stealth jet is well ahead of the F/A-18 Super Hornet, the Eurofighter and the Rafale.” Production for Switzerland is to begin in 2025, with first deliveries in 2027.

Potential operators

• Greece – In January 2024, the US State Department approved the Greek request for sale of up to 40 F-35A aircraft. No FMS contract has been awarded as of May 2024.
• Portugal – Portugal has been leaning toward the F-35 to replace the F-16. While no official decisions have been made public, Portugal’s Air Force Chief of Staff, General João Cartaxo Alves, has repeatedly referred to the Lightning II as the aircraft of choice, most recently in April 2024.
• Romania – Romania’s Supreme Council of National Defence approved acquisition of the F-35A in April 2023, and intends to purchase 48 aircraft in two tranches, enough to field three squadrons. If an FMS sale can be finalised in 2024, Bucharest hopes to take first deliveries in 2030.

The impact on Europe’s aerospace industry

There is some concern that the broad-based F-35 procurement could reduce or eliminate room for competing European designs, and lead to downsizing of the domestic aerospace industry. This concern centres around opportunities on the European market as well as global sales potential. This threat perception may be exaggerated. Only top-tier US Allies are being considered for F-35 FMS contracts, leaving many markets, such as the Middle East, Latin America or Asia, open for competition. European suppliers are also likely to retain a price advantage over the F-35. Recent statements show that the European aerospace sector largely agrees that its prospects remain healthy. During a May 2024 media day, BAE systems confirmed it was actively pursuing contracts to sell up to 200 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft in the coming years, including potential further sales to Germany, Italy and Spain, as well as numerous Middle Eastern markets. Company representatives confirmed plans to enhance the aircraft’s capabilities to ensure relevance into the 2040s and beyond. Similarly, Saab has touted the ability to continually upgrade the JAS 39 Gripen’s software to enhance future capability, and downplayed the difference between fourth and fifth-generation aircraft. While the latter argument might not ‘fly’ with those armed forces which chose the F-35, it does reflect confidence in a multi-tier market for European-designed fighters.

Another major concern centres around the F-35’s potential to suppress European fifth- or sixth- generation aircraft programmes. The argument suggests that across-the-board purchase of the F-35 will leave too little market share to justify major investment in competitor systems. This overlooks the fact that weapon systems, including aircraft, are generally developed and fielded in an overlapping fashion, with new, intermediate and old technologies fulfilling different and mutually supporting roles in the fleet. In fact, both the Franco-German Future Combat Aircraft System (FCAS) and the tripartite (Italy, UK, Japan) Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) continue to move forward, as do the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes of the US Air Force and Navy. Several factors speak in favour of these new programmes’ viability. While the F-35 was only approved for full-rate production on 12 March 2024, more than 1,000 operational aircraft have already been built, with over 990 delivered to end users. Depending on variant, the F-35 officially entered service with the US armed forces between 2015 and 2019.

The European sixth-generation programmes, which are not expected to enter service before 2040, represent a clean sheet technological advance over the Lightning II, which should guarantee the viability of their development programmes. Italian Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Luca Goretti even sees the F-35 as a catalyst for GCAP. Lessons on collaboration, flexibility, sensor integration and digital technology learned from operating the F-35 are already beginning to inform the sixth-generation GCAP, Goretti said during a Mitchell Institute discussion in October 2023.

The USAF in particular, stresses the operational collaboration of the F-35 and the NGAD family of systems. Clearly fifth- and future sixth-generation European aircraft will also operate side by side for decades. However, there is one possible complication. In order to achieve full system integration between the F-35 and the FCAS or GCAP, the respective national industries would need to share a high degree of sensitive proprietary data – something the US, in particular, has tended to shy away from. Even within the F-35 programme, the lower tier partners have been denied full access to critical technological data, to the point that some European nations intermittently contemplated leaving. One workaround for ensuring operational compatibility might be integrating the European sixth-generation aircraft into the F-35’s future Combat Cloud information network, suggested German Army Lt Col Torben Arnold, who is currently seconded as a research fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) foundation in Berlin.

European aerospace participation in the F-35 programme

Concern over domestic aircraft programmes aside, the European aerospace and defence sector is deeply involved in the F-35 programme. US prime contractor Lockheed Martin has joined with both the US aerospace firm Northrop Grumman and with Britain’s BAE Systems as major partners. In the UK alone, the F-35 programme has involved more than 100 suppliers of all sizes and created 20,000 jobs, according to Lockheed Martin.

Tier 2 partner Italy also enjoys significant industrial cooperation. Leonardo DRS takes a lead role among the Italian industry partners. Among other vital components, the firm has a contract to supply complete wing sets for Italian and Allied aircraft, including a portion of the aircraft being assembled in the United States; this encompasses components of the central fuselage, wings and wing box produced at separate locations in Italy and assembled at the Final Assembly and Check Out/Electronic Manufacturing Assembly System (FACO/EMAS) located at Cameri Air Base in the Piedmont region. While owned by the Italian government, the facility is operated by Leonardo in conjunction with Lockheed Martin. In addition to wing assembly for export, the Cameri facility also conducts final assembly for all F-35s being procured by Italian, Dutch and Swiss armed forces, and serves as the maintenance, repair, overhaul and upgrade centre for the entire European region.

Industry opportunities are not restricted to development partners. Finland negotiated an industrial cooperation agreement valued at 30% of the contract price of its F-35s. Major elements include large-scale production of the F-35 front fuselage in Finland (including units for aircraft procured by other nations), production of structural components, related equipment testing and maintenance capability, and final assembly of engines for the Finnish Air Force aircraft. Germany was also able to tie a major industrial award to its selection of the F-35. Lockheed Martin agreed to establish a second F-35 centre fuselage Integrated Assembly Line (IAL), to be operated jointly with Rheinmetall in Weeze, North Rhine-Westphalia, which will support construction of aircraft for various nations. In addition to the direct economic and employment impact, the beneficiary nations value the fact that industrial participation helps to develop and maintain critical production, technology and expertise in the defence and security industry, while also safeguarding national supply chains.

Opportunities for European maintenance and logistics industry

Over and above the production and production supply chain aspect, European industry at all levels is receiving contracts for F-35 maintenance and operational/logistics support. The F-35 is expected to remain in service through the 2080s, providing long-range opportunities for suppliers and contractors. This is all the more the case given the F-35’s highly modular nature. The aircraft is designed to be regularly upgraded with new hardware, software, and firmware elements, especially with regard to electronics and sensors. Small, medium and large enterprises in all user nations recognise a niche which they are well positioned to fill.

“Operating, maintaining, and upgrading the F-35 platform requires advanced technological capabilities, many of which are developed locally and should and could be further developed through the industrial cooperation aspects of the acquisition,” said Mihai Filip, CEO of the Romanian software engineering firm OVES Enterprise. “The Romanian technology industry is not only capable, but also experienced in supporting the F-35 operations for the upcoming decades.” Overall, integrating the F-35 can provide a catalyst for the user nations’ economies by stimulating innovation (especially in the technology sector), infrastructure development and adoption of higher standards, said Romanian business journalist Aurel Constantin in a May 2024 analysis. Such benefits, which also include enhanced cross-border industrial cooperation and partnerships, might be of even greater advantage to the smaller European economies.

The risks of over-reliance

The overlapping procurement of the same fifth-generation combat aircraft system by a large number of Allies was intended to ensure both interoperability as well as cooperative maintenance and support for the aircraft among the participating nations. With so many nations relying on one airframe, there is the risk that prolonged delivery delays or an interruption of key component supply chains could have a greater than usual impact on force development. This is a particularly sensitive issue with the F-35, which has been plagued from the beginning by development and production delays and by cost overruns. While unit costs have been going down, delays remain a reality.

Problems include subcontractor deliveries of defective components, slow delivery of engines, and parts shortages. Delays also plague the upgrade cycles which actually constitute a key selling point for the Lightning II. Currently Lockheed Martin is struggling with the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) software update which is needed to support the enhanced ‘Block 4’ configuration which promises 75 major performance-enhancing upgrades. Completion of the TR-3 update was originally due in April 2023; the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) now estimates mid-2024 as the earliest likely timeframe for a solution. Since July 2023, the Pentagon has refused to accept new F-35s until the TR-3 issue is resolved. Despite this, Lockheed Martin continues to build aircraft at the normal rate, planning to upgrade the software when it becomes available. The GAO estimates some 100–120 aircraft may be waiting for certification by the end of 2024; once TR-3 is available, clearing the backlog could take until late 2025.

Enhanced joint operations

While not unessential, the stated concerns are outweighed by the tactical advantages of the (to date) most powerful fifth-generation combat aircraft, especially in light of increased prospects of a major war involving NATO in the European theatre. The F-35’s combination of stealth, sensor reach and connectivity is unmatched within the Alliance, significantly enhancing power projection capability in terms of air dominance, air-to-ground operations, and situational awareness/multi-domain operations.

According to Lockheed Martin, by 2030 there will be more than 400 F-35s operating from European NATO bases, increasing to over 600 by 2035 (including two USAF squadrons stationed at RAF Lakenheath, Suffolk, UK). The shared platform ensures that allies and coalition partners not only have the same capabilities, but operate by the same standards and protocols. F-35s from one partner country may operate and receive maintenance at any other partner nation’s base with ease thanks to the common inventory. This interoperability has been clearly demonstrated by both Italian Navy and RAF pilots and maintenance personnel embedded and training at the US Marine Corps Air Station in Beaufort, South Carolina. It has also been proven at sea, where USMC F-35Bs conducted a cross-deck aviation mission by operating from HMS Queen Elizabeth. In April of 2024, USAF F-35As stationed in the UK deployed for two days to Ørland Air Station, Norway, where they were exclusively maintained, serviced and rearmed by RoNAF personnel. “We are proud that the progression in the F-35 programme has come so far, that we can use each other’s capacities in this way,” said RNoAF Col. Martin Tesli, base commander.

“Operations like these showcase increased F-35 interoperability in Europe,” added Gen. James B. Hecker, Commander of US Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa, as well as NATO Allied Air Command. “Cross-servicing agreements allow nations to utilise foreign airfields and maintenance resources, expanding capabilities beyond borders. Our goal is for any F-35 to land at any F-35 base, then refuel, repair, rearm, and return to action.”  All things considered, the acquisition of the F-35 – arguably the most capable tactical aircraft in the world until the introduction of sixth-generation fighters – by 12 NATO nations promises a major boost to Alliance operational capabilities, largely outweighing the negative impact.

Sidney E. Dean