Poland’s future armed forces take shape

In recent years, Poland has launched the largest modernisation programme for its armed forces in history. However, not all widely publicised announcements have resulted in binding orders. Impending financial difficulties also raise doubts about these ambitious plans.

In July 2024, Deputy Minister of National Defence Paweł Bejda stated that it was his “dream” for Poland’s defence budget to increase to 5% of the country’s GDP. According to official statistics, Poland is already spending 4% of its GDP on defence, with 3% from the Ministry of National Defence’s budget and 1% from the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ). In 2023, a total of EUR 25.8 billion was allocated to defence, which is 51% more than in 2022. Nevertheless, Tomasz Dmitruk from Dziennik Zbrojny notes that this amounts only to 3.26% of GDP, less than the official data. In 2022, real defence spending was 2.39% of GDP. In 2023, EUR 6.7 billion was spent on Technical Modernisation Plan (PMT) expenditures and EUR 1.1 billion on construction investments.

In 2024, approximately 150 contracts are planned to be signed. Among the priorities are JASSM-ER air-launched cruise missiles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, multi-role and support helicopters, F-16 aircraft modernisation, additional K2 tanks with ammunition, Pilica air defence systems, unmanned reconnaissance and strike systems, satellite terminals, light reconnaissance transporters under the Kleszcz programme, and light radios. The implementation of air defence programmes such as Wisła, Narew, Mała Narew, and Pilica+ is to be accelerated. A priority is also to build satellite capabilities from scratch; the Satellite Operations Centre is expected to achieve full operational readiness in 2024. The Cyber Defence Forces, which currently number around 6,500 personnel (including civilians), are also being expanded.

Regarding the aforementioned FWSZ, it is an additional instrument for financing the armed forces, outside the Ministry of National Defence budget. This fund is managed by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, created by the Homeland Defence Act of March 2022, replacing the Armed Forces Modernization Fund (FMSZ). As noted by Tomasz Dmitruk, the financial plan of the FWSZ is classified, but it is estimated that it was funded to the tune of EUR 7.3 billion in 2023.

Manpower

According to official data, the Polish Armed Forces now comprise 198,000 soldiers, including 130,000 professional soldiers. Additionally, Poland hosts approximately 16,000 troops from Allied nations. The military is currently expanding further, as Poland is creating a sixth division, a decision announced in November 2023. This unit, named the 8th Infantry Division of the Home Army, will have its headquarters in Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą, with its units deployed across four voivodeships (provinces). It will be composed of two mechanised brigades, a motorised brigade, and an armoured brigade. Additionally, the 8th Infantry Division will include an artillery brigade, a logistics regiment, an anti-tank regiment, an anti-aircraft regiment, a command battalion, a reconnaissance battalion, and a chemical battalion.

Despite various challenges, the expansion of the Territorial Defence Forces (WOT) continues, which currently number around 35,000 soldiers. This year, they are expected to reach 20 brigades, including two so-called Border Protection Brigades. Within the operational forces, Poland is still forming a fifth division (the 1st Legion Infantry Division) with four brigades in a controversial move, since existing formations already face equipment and personnel shortages. Forming the 18th Mechanised Division in 2018 was challenging due to the transfer of already existing units.

These actions align with the previous government’s plan to create a 300,000-strong armed force. The current government is less enthusiastic about this idea, as are many experts who believe that the army is already too large given limitations in appropriate equipment. It also lacks proper command and control (C2) systems, training, material reserves, and logistics. Critics draw an analogy to 1939 when Poland numerically had a large army, but low combat effectiveness.

While the Polish military is now the largest in Europe and the third- largest in NATO (behind the USA and Türkiye) in terms of personnel, it ranks 22nd in terms of spending per soldier. Although Poland invests substantial sums in its armed forces, soldiers face shortages of personal equipment. Many are forced to use worn-out gear, including old uniforms and helmets. Some soldiers even purchase the necessary items themselves, including those serving at the border. To address this, Operation Szpej (Gear) has been initiated. Under this initiative, new uniforms with effective camouflage, new bullet-resistant vests, composite helmets, Grot rifles, VIS 100 pistols, sights, night vision goggles, gas masks, and protective filtration clothing are to be ordered. The first phase is scheduled to be completed by December 2024.

Armoured units

In recent years, Poland has made significant investments in its armoured forces in response to the rising threat from Russia and a decision by the previous government to donate dozens of main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine. Between 250–300 T-72M1/M1Rs, 14 Leopard 2A4s, and up to 80 PT-91 Twardy tanks were given to Ukraine. Poland has ordered 180 South Korean K2 tanks and 366 Abrams tanks (116 ex-USMC M1A1 FEP and 250 new M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, along with 26 M88A2 recovery vehicles and 17 M1074 bridge-layers). Both the Abrams and K2 tanks are intended to become the country’s primary MBTs shortly, since all Soviet-era tanks are to be retired as soon as possible. The Leopard 2 tanks (2A4, 2A5, 2PL—247 in total by 2026) are expected to meet the same fate, albeit much later, and some of these tanks will likely go into reserve. The overall framework agreement covers the acquisition of 1,366 MBTs in total. Despite industrial problems and severe delays, a modernisation programme for the Leopard 2 tanks to the Leopard 2PL standard is ongoing. The current plan is for the last modernised Leopard 2s to be delivered to the army by 2027, seven years after the originally scheduled date.

Regarding the K2 tanks, deliveries are planned to be completed in 2025. The value of the contract, including training and logistics packages, amounts to EUR 3 billion. However, in July 2024, it was revealed that negotiations are underway for a second contract for 180 tanks, expected to be signed in September 2024. Some of these tanks are to be produced in Poland. All M1A1FEPs have already been delivered, while the SEPv3s are to be handed over in 2025–2026. The contract for the SEPv3s is worth approximately EUR 4.66 billion, including training, logistic support, and ammunition.

In reality, the future shape of the Polish armoured units remains a mystery. Apart from uncertainties related to the Leopard 2 tanks, Poland has not yet agreed on the details of its planned local production of K2 tanks from South Korea. The final configuration of the K2PL variant is also unknown. The potential involvement of Poland in the K3 tank project, which is expected to feature a 130 mm gun and an unmanned turret, also remains unclear, though Poland has been invited to participate in this programme. According to initial plans, at least 500 K2PLs are expected to be produced by the Military Automotive Works in Poznań (WZM). Other companies, including the original partner for Hyundai Rotem in Poland, namely H. Cegielski-Poznań (HCP), will also be involved in the process.

Infantry vehicles

A flagship modernisation project intended to shape Poland’s future land forces is the Borsuk infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), designed to ultimately replace the ageing BWP-1s (the local name for Soviet-era BMP-1s). Polish mechanised battalions are still equipped with these antiquated vehicles, although some have been donated to Ukraine. The first batch of BMP-1s arrived in Poland in 1974 as a replacement for the Polish-Czechoslovak 8×8 wheeled OT-64 Skot APCs. They were never upgraded in Poland and are now decidedly obsolete.

The Borsuk (Badger) was designed and is planned to be manufactured by Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW). It will serve alongside the Rosomak 8×8 wheeled multi-role armoured fighting vehicles (a licence-produced version of Patria’s AMV design). Both vehicles are expected to be equipped with the ZSSW-30 (Zdalnie Sterowany System Wieżowy; ENG: remotely controlled turret system), which is jointly produced by WB Electronics and HSW. The main armament of the ZSSW is the Northrop Grumman Mk44 Bushmaster II 30 mm cannon, complemented by a co-axial UKM-2000C 7.62 mm gun and two Rafael Spike-LR2 ATGMs. After years of delays, the first ZSSW-30, mounted on the Rosomak, was test-fired by soldiers from the 21st Podhale Rifles Brigade (18th Mechanised Division) in January 2024. The first batch of Rosomaks with ZSSW-30 was delivered to this unit in December 2023. So far, the Armament Agency has signed a framework agreement for 341 turrets with ZSSW-30 for the Rosomak. An executive agreement worth EUR 396 million was signed for 70 ZSSW-30 turrets for the Rosomak, and the first batch of Rosomaks fitted with the ZSSW-30 is already in operational service.

Seventeen mechanised battalions of the Polish Land Forces (Wojska Lądowe) are expected to receive up to 588 Borsuks in the IFV configuration by 2035. This means it will take some time before all BWP-1s are retired. However, the vehicle is still in the testing phase, and an executive deal has yet to be signed. A framework deal for 1,014 IFVs and an additional 341 specialist variant vehicles was signed between the Armament Agency and PGZ in February 2024. It was recently announced that the first order for Borsuks is to be signed by November 2024 at the latest. The vehicle will be entirely produced in Poland by the local defence industry. Poland also wants to acquire heavier IFVs. While the lighter Borsuk is planned to cooperate with K2/K2PL and Leopard 2A5/2PL tanks, a new heavy IFV is planned to operate alongside M1A1FEP/A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks.

Regarding the Rosomaks, these vehicles will continue to serve in the Polish Army for a considerable length of time, though decisions regarding a potential mid-life upgrade (MLU) will need to be made eventually. In July 2024, the Armament Agency signed a contract with PGZ for the delivery of 58 Rosomaks with ZSSW-30 turrets. This executive deal is worth EUR 605 million, and deliveries are planned between 2026–2027. These vehicles will not only be armed with the ZSSW-30 but will also receive new engines—replacing the Scania DI12 with the Scania DC13. Negotiations are also ongoing for another batch of 174 Rosomaks with ZSSW-30, with rumours that these turrets might receive different ATGMs to the Spike-LR2. At the same time, deliveries of five M120K Rak company-level 8×8 wheeled self-propelled mortars (based on the Rosomak platform) are ongoing, with completion expected in 2024. According to Defence24, the Polish Armament Agency is also negotiating a contract for 250–400 Rosomak-Ls (a longer variant with several enhancements).

Artillery

As a result of donating some of its indigenously-designed and manufactured (by HSW) Krab 155 mm self-propelled howitzers (SPHs), as well as due to modernisation plans, Poland made the controversial decision to purchase K9 SPHs from South Korea. So far, 72 out of the 218 ordered K9A1s have been delivered. From 2026–2027, 146 K9A2s are expected to arrive. Simultaneously, the Polish Army continues to receive additional Krab howitzers, with a total order of 170. The Polish defence industry hopes for more Krab orders to be placed.

Poland has already received 18 out of 20 M142 HIMARS units and 30 out of 290 modules for the K239 Chunmoo launchers (the latter under the Homar-K project). The latter will be based on the Polish Jelcz chassis and will feature the Polish WB Group Topaz automated fire control and battle management system. A deal worth EUR 4.36 billion was signed in early November 2022 between the Polish Armament Agency and Hanwha Aerospace. Under the current contract, 218 systems are to be delivered, which also includes training and logistics. Poland will also receive “several thousand” missiles of two types: 239 mm (with a range of 80 km) and 290 mm (with a range of 290 km). Deliveries are planned from 2023–2029.

The Homar-K launchers will significantly enhance Poland’s artillery capabilities. Current Polish Army artillery systems, such as the Krab 155 mm SPHs and the WR-40 Langusta wheeled MRLs, do not use guided munitions and have a range of only about 40 km (Poland’s 9K79 Toczka tactical ballistic missiles were retired in 2005). To fully utilise the K239 Chunmoo’s long-range strike capabilities, Poland will need to either develop its own reconnaissance and targeting capabilities or cooperate closely with its allies.

Air/missile defence

In 2023 and 2024, contracts were signed for the delivery of launchers and missiles for PATRIOT air defence systems under Phase II of the Wisła programme (medium range), the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), as well as launchers and missiles for the CAMM-ER-based Narew system (medium range). The first two batteries of the Wisła system are expected to achieve initial operational capability (IOC) in 2024. Deliveries of the first two batteries under Phase II are scheduled to occur between late 2026 and early 2027, with completion planned for 2029. IBCS will be used by both Wisła and Narew. In terms of Narew, the Polish defence industry is expected to deliver over 1,000 MBDA CAMM-ER missiles and approximately 138 launchers. This system will intercept various air targets at altitudes up to 20 km and ranges up to 45 km. Poland plans to field 23 batteries (each comprising two battery fire units of three launchers each, for a total of 46 battery fire units) with deliveries scheduled from 2027 to 2035.

In December 2023, Poland received the last batch of the Pilica very short-range air defence (VSHORAD) programme (six systems, each composed of six ZU-23-2 23 mm automatic cannons and Grom/Piorun missiles). In 2022, the Ministry of National Defence (MON) launched a plan to upgrade Pilica to the Pilica+ standard. The existing Pilica systems will be supplemented with launchers for CAMM missiles, extending the maximum engagement range from the present 5.5/6.5 km (respectively depending on whether Grom/Piorun is used) out to 25 km, and the total number of sets will increase from six to 22. Poland is still awaiting deliveries of four Barbara aerostats and 24 early warning P-18PL radars. Additionally, 12 Raytheon LTAMDS Ghosteye radars have been acquired for the PATRIOT system and 22 Polish-made Bystra radars for the Pilica+ system.

Aviation

Poland has received all 12 KAI FA-50 Block 10 (known as KA-50GF in Polish service) light combat training aircraft; this variant was deployed to the 23rd Tactical Airbase in Mińsk Mazowiecki, which has been operating MiG-29s. This is a temporary solution until Poland can introduce the better-armed and equipped FA-50PL into service. This purchase, one of the most controversial among recent orders from South Korea, is expected to enable the Polish Air Force to phase out its Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-22s. Operationally, the FA-50s will be used for training and to replace F-16C/Ds in some duties, primarily peace-time air-policing. A total of 48 jets are to be procured including the 12 FA-50GF, and 36 FA-50 Block 20 (known as FA-50PL in Polish service). Ultimately, the initial batch of 12 FA-50GF are planned to be upgraded to the FA-50PL standard, featuring an AESA radar, and armed with AIM-9X Sidewinder, and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. This is KAI’s largest export order ever. Deliveries and modernisation of GFs are expected to be carried out between 2025-2028.

Poland is awaiting the delivery of 36 F-35A aircraft, which were ordered in January 2020 for USD 4.6 billion. Deliveries are planned for 2026–2030. Meanwhile, Poland ordered two used ex-UAE Saab 340 AEW early warning aircraft equipped with PS-890 ERIEYE airborne radars. Although these aircraft are second-hand, they undoubtedly represent a significant capability enhancement as they are the first of their kind to serve in the Polish Air Force. While this is good news, there is some disappointment in Poland, as many hoped the government would procure newer and more advanced systems. Although the Ministry of National Defence assures that this is only an interim solution, many commentators fear that the Saab 340 will be the only aircraft of this class Poland will acquire in the coming years.

Poland is expected to procure more combat jets. According to the previous government’s plans, the Polish Air Force aims to establish two additional combat squadrons. There has been speculation that Poland could acquire the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, but the procurement of F-16C/D Block 72 cannot be ruled out. For its part, Leonardo has been promoting the Eurofighter Typhoon. New F-16s could be used alongside the F-16C/D Block 52+, which will likely be upgraded to Block 72 standard in the coming years. Purchasing additional F-16s would therefore not pose logistical challenges.

Poland has also been modernising with various UAVs. The list includes 24 Bayraktar TB2s. The fourth and final batch was handed over to the 12th UAV Base in Mirosławiec in May 2024. Poland has also been leasing one set of MQ-9A Reapers and has procured at least 168 FlyEye UAVs, with a requirement for 400 by 2035 for the latter.

Regarding rotary-wing aircraft, Poland has received six out of eight ordered S-70i helicopters for the Special Forces, three out of four AW101 aircraft for the Navy (for SAR and ASW duties), and four out of 32 AW149 units for the air cavalry. The AH-64E Apache attack helicopters have not yet been ordered. Poland also plans to purchase 24 new training helicopters.

The Navy

A flagship modernisation project is the Miecznik (Swordfish) programme, which aims to elevate both the Polish Navy and local defence industry. This project involves the construction of frigates based on the British Arrowhead 140 (Type 31) design, which was developed by Babcock and has already been ordered by Indonesia and the Royal Navy. Construction of the first of the three ordered frigates is currently underway, with all deliveries expected to be complete by 2031. The contract, signed in 2021, is the largest order in the history of the Polish defence industry. These frigates are anticipated to become the backbone of the Polish Navy.

Additionally, three out of six Kormoran II minehunters (Project 258) have been delivered. The fourth has already been launched by Remontowa Shipbuilding. The issue of submarines remains unresolved, as Poland currently has only one submarine, commissioned in 1986. Due to a lack of technological and industrial capabilities in this area, Poland must decide to purchase submarines from foreign suppliers.

Future challenges

One of the primary challenges facing Poland is financial constraints. The country has adopted overly ambitious modernisation plans, partially driven by internal political calculations and attempts to gain voter popularity. In reality, however, there will not be enough funds to finance all these projects. Delays in some projects and the absence of executive agreements vividly illustrate this issue. Poland must not only find money to purchase specific weaponry but also to implement and maintain it for many years.

“Previous Defence Minister Błaszczak did not secure funding for infrastructure, for instance,” noted Deputy Minister Bejda. “These are crucial elements accompanying the orders, which also need to be financed and built.” The current government estimates that the previous administration’s financial shortfall for ongoing projects amounts to approximately EUR 14 billion.

In June 2024, Poland was listed by the European Commission as one of 12 countries with excessive deficits (over 3% of GDP or public debt exceeding 60% of GDP). The Polish government argues that this is due to increased defence spending. While this is considered a mitigating factor by Brussels, according to EU methodology, military expenditures are accounted for not at the time of payment but at the time of delivery. According to the European Commission’s report, Poland’s defence spending is expected to double over the next four years.

The government has adopted a deficit reduction plan aiming to lower the deficit to 4.1% of GDP by 2025. This means that Poland will most likely have to cut internal expenditure and revise its defence plans.

Robert Czulda