Diversifying Armenia’s defence: Shifting alliances and military modernisation

Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, followed by Azerbaijani offensives on Armenian territory and Nagorno-Karabakh in 2022 and 2023, marked a turning point in the country’s defence strategy. These conflicts exposed critical weaknesses in the Armenian army, which remained largely reliant on outdated Soviet and Russian weaponry. This dependence on Russian arms and logistical support proved inadequate in the face of modern warfare tactics, revealing vulnerabilities and necessitating a strategic reassessment of Armenia’s approach to defence and security.

Despite the lessons of the 2020 war, Armenia initially continued sourcing arms from Russia, even signing a major arms contract with Russia in 2021. However, two key events forced Yerevan to rethink its military partnerships. First, Russia’s prolonged invasion of Ukraine exposed serious flaws in its defence industry and weapons production. Second, Azerbaijan’s large-scale offensive in September 2022 targeted Armenia’s internationally-recognised territory, attacking civilian areas and occupying border regions. When Armenia sought assistance from its allies – particularly the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – for assistance, it was met with indifference, reinforcing the unreliability of these alliances.

These events made it clear to Armenia that continued reliance on Russian arms supplies was becoming increasingly unsustainable. Following Azerbaijan’s September 2022 attacks, Armenia actively sought military cooperation with other countries, particularly India and France, to secure alternative sources of weaponry. Since then, diversifying arms supplies and military equipment has become a cornerstone of the country’s defence policy. This strategic shift became even more urgent after Azerbaijan’s September 2023 attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to the mass displacement of the resident Armenian population, leading Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to accuse Azerbaijan of conducting ethnic cleansing. This outcome further solidified Armenia’s determination to reduce its military dependence on Russia.

Since late 2022, India and France have emerged as Armenia’s primary arms suppliers, providing nearly the entire range of weapons and equipment necessary for the country’s defence. Both countries remain open to further deliveries of critical weaponry, and Armenia has become the largest foreign client of India’s defence sector. India was the first country Armenia turned to under its new defence initiatives, aiming to modernise and diversify its military capabilities. Armenia’s efforts are now primarily focused on securing partnerships for the supply of advanced weaponry and ammunition, ensuring reliable logistics, and reducing its dependence on Russia – a country that has proven unable to provide adequate arms and support, particularly in Armenia’s ongoing confrontation with Azerbaijan.

In recent years, India has made significant strides in expanding its military industrial capabilities through the ‘Make in India’ initiative, successfully developing and mass-producing military equipment at competitive prices.[1] Armenia’s procurement of Indian-made weapons serves to some extent as an endorsement, helping to establish India’s growing presence in the international defence market

At the same time, India continues to maintain its position as the world’s second-largest arms importer (after Ukraine), with its imports constituting 8.3% of global arms trade from 2020–2024 according to SIPRI.[2] The country’s defence acquisition strategy remains diversified, with major procurement relationships maintained with France, Israel, and Russia.

India

According to open sources, since late 2022, Armenia and India have signed several defence contracts encompassing a wide range of weaponry and military systems.[3] These agreements include the acquisition of 214 mm Pinaka multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS), Konkurs anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) – which were produced in India under Russian license – as well as mortars, and various types of ammunition. Additionally, the contracts cover MArG 155/39 self-propelled howitzers (SPHs), ATAGS 155/52 towed howitzers, anti-drone systems, and Akash surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. Indian media reports indicate that Armenia is also considering acquiring Indian missile defence systems.

Unconfirmed reports from Indian sources suggest that Armenia has also received offers for more advanced systems, such as Pralay short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), BrahMos and BrahMos NG supersonic cruise missiles, ATGMs, various other types of ammunition and undisclosed weaponry. Additionally, India may offer upgrades for Armenia’s four Su-30SM multirole fighters, originally purchased from Russia in 2019. These upgrades would involve equipping them with Indian avionics, radar systems, and missiles, including Astra beyond-visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAMs) and Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW) precision-guided glide bombs.[4] Reports indicate that Armenia has already approached India with a request for this modernisation to enhance the compatibility of its aircraft with Indian air-launched weaponry.

A potential drawback of Armenia’s procurement of Indian combat systems is that some of India’s newly developed military equipment – particularly the MArG 155/39 SPHs and ATAGS 155/52 towed howitzers – has not yet been officially adopted by the Indian Army. As a result, Armenia is acting as a launch customer, and given the geopolitical situation in the region, it may become the first country to deploy these systems in combat. The true effectiveness of these weapons, along with their strengths and potential weaknesses, can only be fully assessed after their use in real battlefield conditions.

While expert estimates of Armenia’s current and planned contracts with India range from USD 1 billion to USD 2 billion, the Indian Ministry of Defence has confirmed that arms purchases already paid for by Armenia have reached USD 600 million by the beginning of FY2024–2025. This growing partnership signals strong potential for future defence cooperation between the two countries, with possibilities extending beyond arms sales to include joint exercises, technical partnerships, and defence industry investments.

As India continues to expand its defence sector, it is prepared to export a broad range of its military products to Armenia. Additionally, there is a possibility that India may grant Armenia long-term credit line as a major and reliable defence client. A key component of this partnership could involve joint production and technological collaboration. India may further develop defence ties with Armenia not only through direct exports, but also through localised production, which would require manufacturing certain components of Indian weaponry in Armenia and transferring military technologies on mutually beneficial terms.

Such an arrangement would allow Armenia to achieve its strategic goal of diversifying its defence partnerships and reducing its dependence on Russia. At the same time, India would gain a reliable partner in advancing its ‘Make in India’ industrial policy while strengthening its geopolitical influence in the region.

France

Defence cooperation between France and Armenia took a significant step forward in 2024 with the visit of French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu to Yerevan. This collaboration was formally initiated in October 2023, when the first agreement on arms supplies was signed. In December 2024, the two countries solidified their partnership by concluding a Defense Cooperation Program for 2025, outlining plans for closer security cooperation.[5] Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan highlighted that the cooperation spans multiple critical areas, including arms supplies, training of Armenian military personnel, advisory and intelligence support, and broader defence initiatives.

According to the signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) and open-source information, Armenia is acquiring a broad package of weapons and military equipment from France. This includes 50 Arquus Bastion 4×4 protected patrol vehicles (PPVs), three Thales GM200 radars capable of detecting aerial targets within a 250 km radius, night vision devices and thermal imaging equipment such as binoculars and goggles, various models of sniper rifles from PGM Précision, as well as MBDA Mistral very short-range air defence (VSHORAD) missiles.

Further strengthening its military capabilities, Armenia signed a contract with France for 36 CAESAR 155/52 SPHs, scheduled for delivery by September 2025. Negotiations are ongoing for additional arms supplies, including air defence systems, artillery, anti-drone systems, and anti-tank weapons specifically tailored to meet the operational needs of the Armenian Army.

Beyond arms acquisitions, a key pillar of this cooperation is military education, training, and consulting—areas where Armenia had previously been entirely dependent on Russia. France has committed to training Armenian officers and junior command personnel, marking a significant shift in Armenia’s defence orientation. As part of this initiative, five Armenian officers have been sent to the prestigious Saint-Cyr Military Academy, with plans to expand the cadet training programme in the coming years.

While the financial details of current and future defence agreements remain undisclosed, the growing partnership with France signals a major shift in Armenia’s defence strategy. Looking ahead, the prospects for cooperation could extend beyond arms deliveries to include defence industry modernisation, enhanced military training programmes, and the potential development of a long-term strategic security partnership between the two countries.

Other partners

Armenia is also expanding its defence ties with a range of other countries. Over the past year, the Armenian Ministry of Defence has signed defence cooperation agreements with Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, and Italy.

In the case of Greece, certain aspects of defence cooperation take place within a trilateral framework that includes Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia. Key areas of collaboration with Greece include military training across various branches of the armed forces, military education, joint drills and exercises, knowledge exchange, and advisory support. This partnership reinforces Armenia’s strategic ties within the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Armenia’s defence cooperation with the US has also advanced, particularly in military education, advisory assistance, and joint military exercises involving the Armenian peacekeeping brigade. Armenia and the US conducted the Eagle Partner 2024 drills from 15-24 July 2024, which focused on preparing Armenian forces for participation in international peacekeeping missions. High-level meetings and negotiations on defence issues between Armenia and the United States are ongoing. However, there is no confirmed information regarding US arms supplies to Armenia, aside from a statement by US Ambassador to Armenia, Kristina Kvien, who mentioned the potential delivery of military medical armoured vehicles.[6]

Armenia’s arsenal and diversification challenges

In late June 2024, Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council announced that Russia’s share in Armenia’s arms procurement has dropped dramatically, from over 96% before 2022 to just 10%.[7] This sharp decline underscores Armenia’s success in securing alternative suppliers to rearm its military and strengthen its defence capabilities. The remaining 10% from Russia likely consists of previously paid but undelivered weaponry from 2021 contracts, indicating that Armenia has not placed new orders with Russia since then.

However, this shift does not mean Armenia has entirely phased out its legacy Soviet and Russian military equipment. The Armenian army remains largely equipped with Soviet-era and Russian-made weaponry, necessitating continued reliance on Russian-standard ammunition, spare parts, and maintenance for the foreseeable future. A shortage of critical components could critically impact Armenia’s defence readiness. Reducing this dependence further will require substantial time, financial investment, and the strategic selection of alternative partners. By diversifying defence cooperation and expanding supply sources while gradually reducing reliance on Russian arms, Armenia gains both operational flexibility and strategic autonomy.

Nonetheless, this transition comes with considerable challenges. Integrating new weaponry with different standards and calibres while maintaining existing stockpiles demands extensive retraining of personnel and fundamental military reforms. Adjusting to non-Russian systems will require a more strategic personnel policy, including the recruitment and training of specialists capable of managing the country’s evolving military landscape.

A notable complication in this transition is the issue of military uniformity. As Armenia acquires Western-standard weaponry and calibres alongside its existing Soviet/Russian systems, it faces the challenge of operating a mixed arsenal. This is particularly evident in Armenia’s procurement of modern artillery, marking a shift from the Warsaw Pact standard 152 mm calibre – used for over three decades – over to the widely-adopted NATO standard 155 mm calibre. This change necessitates adaptation to new, more sophisticated equipment, alongside training and logistical adjustments.

Previously, the maintenance and operational support of Armenia’s Russian-made weapons relied heavily on Russian enterprises. In this regard, partnerships with India and, to a lesser extent, the Czech Republic, play an increasingly vital role. These countries offer alternative solutions for spare parts, upgrades, and logistical support, helping Armenia reduce its dependence on Russian defence infrastructure while modernising its military capabilities.

Both India and the Czech Republic have significant potential to supply Armenia with high-quality domestic weaponry and equipment, while also helping to service and modernise Soviet/Russian-made armaments.

India, the world’s largest operator of Russian military equipment after Russia itself, utilises a wide range of systems – from Su-30 fighter jets and armoured vehicles to air defence systems, ATGMs, and small arms. These systems are manufactured in Indian facilities and serviced by Indian specialists. For Armenia, this positions India as an effective alternative to Russia. India can manufacture spare parts and has experience in repairing and upgrading Soviet/Russian military equipment used by its armed forces.

Likewise, the Czech Republic brings significant expertise, infrastructure, and highly qualified specialists to the repair and modernisation of Soviet/Russian military equipment. The defence cooperation agreement signed in Yerevan in 2024 between Armenia and the Czech Republic, with the participation of representatives from the Czech defence industry, likely reflects an understanding of the need to mitigate risks associated with dependence on Russian supplies. The Armenian Ministry of Defence stated that the meeting with the Czech delegation resulted in a number of agreements, though specific details regarding their nature and scope have not yet been disclosed.

Alongside efforts to procure weaponry from new defence partners, resolving logistical challenges remains a priority. Armenia is a landlocked country, making it entirely dependent on transit routes through neighbouring states. Armenia must therefore engage in significant diplomatic efforts to ensure stable transit. Azerbaijan and Türkiye completely block Armenian communication routes, preventing transit through their territories, leaving Georgia and Iran as the only viable transportation corridors for military shipments.

Closing thoughts

In the coming years, Armenia will face the complex task of modernising its armed forces and diversifying its arms supplies. This is a difficult and costly process that will require substantial financial resources and considerable governmental effort. However, Armenia has few alternatives.

It is essential for Armenia to modernise its existing military arsenal and foster the development of its domestic defence industry, which will help reduce dependence on external sources in certain areas. In recent years, local defence industry enterprises have received a record allocation of AMD 122 billion (USD 310 million) from the State budget for military procurement. According to Armenia’s Minister of Industry and High Technologies, this amount was expected to exceed AMD 190 billion (USD 500 million) by the end of 2024.

Overall, Armenia’s military industry has limited capabilities and occupies a niche role in supplying the Armenian army with military equipment. Several Armenian enterprises and companies have experience and sufficient capacity in producing mortars, small arms, and ammunition, as well as developing innovative solutions in surveillance and reconnaissance systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and robotics. As such the aforementioned substantial increase in financial support will enable local enterprises to expand defence production. Some companies and start-ups may be able to transition from laboratory-scale to industrial-scale manufacturing, reaching mass production capabilities.

It is also crucial to strengthen international cooperation by expanding the network of defence partners who can provide technical and financial assistance, while supporting the acquisition of modern weaponry and technologies.

Finally, Armenia must prioritise enhanced training for its military personnel to effectively use new weapons and apply modern tactical approaches on the battlefield. The quality of military education and retraining of active-duty personnel are essential for improving combat readiness and learning from armies with sophisticated military capabilities.

Strengthening the offensive potential of the Armenian Army’s infantry requires improvements in tactics, equipment, and combat training. Through a comprehensive approach and well-structured training programmes, Armenian infantry can develop a more agile and dynamic combat style suited to modern warfare. With proper management and a sustained financial commitment, significant improvements to the country’s military capabilities are achievable within a few years.

Author:
Eduard Arakelyan is a military analyst at the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, specialising in Armenia’s defence cooperation with various countries, security system diversification, Armed Forces reforms, and weaponry characteristics. He also has expertise in Azerbaijan, focusing on the country’s internal politics, foreign affairs, economy, and energy developments.
Dr Karena Avedissian, PhD, is a Senior Analyst at the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, specialising in Eurasian politics and foreign affairs, with expertise in Russia, the former Soviet Union, Türkiye, and Syria. Her work focuses on armed conflicts, political crises, and social movements, along with a background in disinformation and narrative analysis.

[1] https://makeinindiadefence.gov.in/

[2] https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_at_2024_0.pdf

[3] https://evnreport.com/politics/untangling-armenias-indian-arms-procurement/

[4] https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/armenia-may-ask-india-to-upgrade-its-su-30s-buy-astra-missiles-here-s-why-124091600588_1.html

[5] https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=87766&lang=3

[6] https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=83024&lang=3

[7] https://www.thearmenianreport.com/post/armenia-russia-military-cooperation-drops-from-96-to-below-10-due-to-unfulfilled-contracts